Analysis-Hungary’s Orban gears up to be Europe’s ‘Trump whisperer’

This content was published on November 7, 2024 - 17:50

4 minutes

By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST (Reuters) – As much of Europe frets over the return of Donald Trump, Hungary’s Viktor Orban is in a jubilant mood.

“A much needed victory for the World!” the Hungarian nationalist leader wrote on X minutes after Trump declared victory.

Orban hopes his close personal ties with Trump will elevate his standing in a politically fractious Europe and bolster support for his far-right allies, at a time when he faces serious headwinds at home.

On Thursday, he got to take centre stage as the host of a summit in Budapest of European leaders, many of whom are concerned at what Trump means for Ukraine, NATO and global trade.

Orban, who has grown increasingly isolated within the EU for his ties with Russia and opposition to military aid for Ukraine, has praised Trump as a “man of peace” who would quickly end the war. The two spoke by phone late on Wednesday, and Orban posted on social media: “We have big plans for the future”.

Trump’s victory could reduce Orban’s isolation in Europe as he aims to act as a mediator between Washington and Europe.

That would align with Orban’s self-styled “peace mission” that upset European Union leaders in July when he visited Moscow and Kyiv without notifying the EU or NATO. He ended that mission meeting Trump at Mar-a-Lago, after which he said Trump would act “as a peace broker immediately” after he wins.

“Orban will see himself as a Trump-whisperer and use that to get himself more leverage within the EU,” Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia group, told journalists.

The EU may be reluctant for Orban to take the lead on discussions related to security or Ukraine, but with Trump threatening to impose a 10% tariff on all imports they may be hoping he can carry some weight in discussions over trade.

“We will open several bottles of champagne if Trump is back,” Orban told a briefing last month during a visit to the European Parliament.

On Wednesday, Orban said Europe would need to rethink its strategy on Ukraine with Trump returning to power.

Trump said last year that he could end the war “in 24 hours” but has not said how.

“Orban …hopes that his weight as a kind of political dealmaker will be much more important than before,” said Peter Kreko, director of think tank Political Capital in Budapest.

THE FLIP SIDE

In office since 2010 and before that from 1998-2002, Orban is now facing rare challenges at home from a new and strong opposition party and a stagnating economy. The return of Trump is likely to see political pressure from Washington evaporate over his curbs on media freedom and LGBTQ rights.

Relations between Budapest and Washington also soured under outgoing President Joe Biden because of Orban’s ties to Moscow and foot-dragging over the ratification of Sweden’s NATO bid.

In a speech on Wednesday, the U.S. ambassador to Hungary, David Pressman, said Orban had treated the US election “like a card game at a casino,” putting his alliance with the United States at risk by so firmly backing Trump.

“And he placed a very big bet. Whether he believes that he won or lost this hand, he was gambling not with money but with the U.S.-Hungary relationship,” Pressman said.

With Trump in office, Orban’s room for manoeuvre ahead of the 2026 national elections could widen at home, some analysts added.

But although Orban now envisages a return to a “golden age” of American-Hungarian relations, there is a flip side: Trump’s trade policies, including proposed tariffs on car imports, which could hurt Hungary’s economy.

The automotive sector accounted for 12.3% of manufacturing jobs in Hungary in 2021 according to data from European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, with Stellantis and China’s BYD among those having plants there.

Trump has said he will impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, and 60% duties on imports from China.

“The Trump 2.0 era could bring serious headaches for European industry,” Peter Virovacz, an economist at ING said after dismal Hungarian output data on Wednesday.