Bonds Crushed by CPI as Nasdaq 100 Erases 1% Loss: Markets Wrap

This content was published on February 12, 2025 - 23:09

15 minutes

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders sent bond yields soaring after hot inflation data spurred bets the Federal Reserve won’t have much room to cut rates, though stocks pared most of Wednesday’s losses as tech buyers stepped in. Oil sank as the US agreed with Russia to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

Treasury 10-year yields soared the most since Dec. 18 when hawkish Fed signals rattled trading. Money markets are now projecting the first – and only – US rate reduction late this year. Almost every major group in the S&P 500 fell, though the gauge trimmed most of a 1.1% slide as Tesla Inc. led gains in megacaps and Meta Platforms Inc. rose for an 18th straight session. For the first time since November, the Nasdaq 100 erased an intraday loss of 1%. In late hours, Cisco Systems Inc. jumped on an upbeat sales forecast.

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US inflation picked up broadly at the start of the year, with the monthly consumer price index rising in January by the most since August 2023. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the latest CPI shows that while the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do, “so we want to keep policy restrictive for now.”

“Higher-for-longer may have just gotten a little longer,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “The Fed has been waiting for clear signs that inflation is trending lower again, and this morning they got the opposite. Until that changes, the markets are going to have to remain patient about additional rate cuts.”

Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers says it’s really tough to take today’s numbers in stride.

“The bond market didn’t,” he said. “One feature of the current equity market seems to be this mantra: ‘Every dip is a buying opportunity. The bigger the dip, the bigger the opportunity’.”

Sosnick notes that in a way stocks can be a hedge against modest inflation, since earnings per share are measured in nominal terms. Inflation raises those nominal results, particularly for companies with relatively inelastic demand for their products, he added.

“The largest tech stocks fit that bill, at least while the enthusiasm for all things related to artificial intelligence continues,” he noted. “And thus, the dips get bought, even with a hot, hot, hot inflation report.”

The S&P 500 fell 0.3%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.5%.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 4.62%. Bonds did not move much in response to a weak $42 billion US auction that saw the highest coupon rate since 2007. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.7% to $71.35 a barrel. Gold was little changed.

The so-called core CPI — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.4% in January after a 0.2% advance in December, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday. From a year ago, it rose 3.3%. The headline measure rose 0.5% from December and 3% from the year before.

“Today’s inflation report will make for very uncomfortable reading for the Fed,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “If this persists into the next few months, inflation risks may become too heavily weighted to the upside to permit the Fed to cut rates at all this year.”

To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, although it’s too early to predict that officials will begin raising rates any time soon, the market is going to start seriously considering that the next move the Fed makes – even if it is in late 2025 or early 2026 – is going to be a hike and not a cut.

“So caution is warranted,” he said.

To Aditya Bhave at Bank of America Corp., the latest figures increase his conviction that the cutting cycle is over.

“Hikes remain unlikely, but they seem less inconceivable now,” Bhave said.

At the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, Larry Tentarelli says while he does not expect any immediate change in Fed policy, if there is a series of two or three hot inflation reports, they could put pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

“In the near-term, we expect higher bond yields and higher volatility in equity markets,” he said. “Investors should keep a close eye on the 10-year US Treasury yield. Any move closer to or above 4.80% could create negative near-term headwinds for stocks.”

Matt Maley at Miller Tabak noted that Wednesday’s CPI, last week’s employment report and concerns over tariffs have all taken the yield on the 10-year note back above its trend-line from last September.

“This does not mean that they will push above 5% level soon nor that these yields will not reverse lower at some point later this year,” Maley said. “However, it should raise concerns that the Fed will wait quite a bit longer to cut short-term rates than the Street had been thinking until recently and also raise concerns that Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal of lower long-term yields will take longer to achieve as well.”

The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes is indeed an important benchmark that helps price trillions of dollars in global assets.

On Feb. 6, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he sees it as a key metric and catalyst for the economy. The former hedge fund manager believes declines in 10-year Treasury yields — a trend he sees continuing to unfold — are a sign that bond investors are reacting positively to the Trump administration’s policies, which he sees sparking “non-inflationary growth.”

The jump in US inflation last month that surprised investors was mostly due to the way the government adjusts for typical price increases at the start of the year, according to Bloomberg Economics.

While the report spooked markets and reduced odds of a Fed interest-rate cut in the first half of the year, the advances were “mostly due to residual seasonality — the ‘January effect’ — limiting the signal from the hot print,” Bloomberg Economics’ Anna Wong and Stuart Paul wrote. At the same time, inflation ran a touch cooler at the end of 2024.

“Residual seasonality was likely at play in the January CPI report, but we think the data still showed underlying price pressures,” said Andy Schneider at BNP Paribas. “While the Fed is cognizant of the pattern of early-year inflation strength, the print will do little to ease policymakers’ inflation anxieties.”

To Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group, lack of progress on inflation is the story here.

“This is not the start of a resurgence in inflation,” he said. “Food and energy are big players in the hot reads, so there’s a chance we get a little reprieve in the spring.”

Mark Hackett at Nationwide says today will be a test of investor psychology and commitment to the buy-the-dip instinct, as inflation continues to be a primary tail risk for the Goldilocks narrative.

“We have been concerned about inflation as a risk for some time, and believe that while risk markets can go higher, it will be a choppier trajectory than the last two years,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Investors should use pullbacks to add to US large-cap equities and the energy, financials, industrials, and communication services sectors.”

Samana says he would also use moves higher on the 10-year Treasury towards 4.5%-5% to add to lengthen the duration of portfolios and lock in what he believea to be attractive yields.

US PREVIEW: PPI Components to Tip Higher January Core PCE

Swap traders, who previously anticipated a rate cut by September, pushed out bets for the next Fed reduction to December.

“Markets priced out cuts in the cycle as the firmer inflation print keeps the Fed on their toes as they assess the impacts of tariff policies as well as the deceleration in inflation from restrictive Fed policy,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg. “We remain long 10-year rates and view levels as attractive entry points.”

All else equal, hotter inflation would likely keep the Fed from cutting rates sooner, which would in turn result in a stronger dollar, according to Richard Flynn at Charles Schwab.

“The dollar’s strength could help offset some of the inflationary pressures in the economy and from tariffs. It also makes US Treasuries attractive to hold, helping to mitigate some of the upward pressure on yields,” Flynn said.

“The immediate reaction to today’s report will likely weigh on stocks in the short term, as a higher-than-expected print further lowers the odds of rate cuts from the Fed this year and stokes investors’ reflationary fears,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.

‘Positioned for Perfection’

To Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott, the issue is that US equity markets have been “positioned for perfection” for quite some time now, which means any potholes on the macro front could lead to elevated volatility over the short run.

Wantrobski notes that effectively, long equities remains a very crowded trade at this time- and this is despite the recent pairing of large-cap tech exposure by the buyside.

“This makes for a very lopsided position in our view, which leaves little room for error.”

Wall Street’s Reaction to CPI:

Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.:

Today’s data doesn’t change the narrative that US economic momentum was solid over the turn of the year, while inflation progress stalled. If anything, this further confirms US Federal Reserve rhetoric to hold rates steady for a while. We think inflation is likely to hold steady at uncomfortably elevated levels through 2025 (~3% core CPI).

Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors:

For now, it’s a “wait and see” approach for Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues, who recognize that the case for further easing in the near term has been reduced. Rate hikes don’t appear to be on the table, but a sustained resurgence in inflation could change that.

Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments:

The “wait and see” Fed is going to be waiting longer than anticipated after a red-hot January CPI inflation report. Prices jumped more than expected and in a broad-based fashion which is consistent with yesterday’s comments from Chair Powell that the Fed is not “in a hurry” to adjust interest rates. This report puts the final nail in the coffin for the rate cut cycle, which we believe is over.

Today’s hotter print shifts investor expectations for monetary policy, which lends to upward pressure on long-term interest rates and downward pressure on equities. Not all equities are impacted equally, however, with more indebted companies facing headwinds from higher rates while others will ultimately benefit from higher revenues as they are able to charge more for their products. We believe value should outperform growth in such an environment.

Whitney Watson at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:

Today’s stronger than expected CPI release is likely to further cement the FOMC’s cautious approach to easing. A resilient labor market also provides scope for patience. We think the Fed is likely to remain in “wait and see mode” for the time being and anticipate the Fed staying on hold at next month’s meeting.

Michael Brown at Pepperstone:

These figures should see the Fed maintain their patient stance, being in no hurry to deliver another rate cut. Consequently, any rate reductions in the first half of 2025 now seem highly unlikely.

Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital:

With this very strong CPI print, the Federal Reserve is on hold when it comes to interest rates for at least the remainder of 2025. Inflation and inflation expectations are both rising, which is something the Fed needs to counter by keeping rates higher for longer.

The Fed has nothing to do at this point but wait and see, and hope that the economic indicators change to suggest more progress on inflation. If consumer prices or inflation expectations rise any further, it is quite possible that the Fed’s next move is to raise short term interest rates.

Corporate Highlights:

Reddit Inc.’s fourth-quarter user growth missed Wall Street’s expectations, a sign the newly public company is struggling to keep up with larger digital advertising peers Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
Apple Inc. expanded the TV+ video service to Android phones for the first time, a move aimed at boosting its streaming subscribers.
Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that more than doubled as the online-trading firm was buoyed by crypto-market transactions around the US presidential election.
Chevron Corp. plans to cut its global workforce by 15% to 20% by next year, as part of efforts to reduce costs and raise profits.
Kraft Heinz Co. said it will discount key items in the coming year while improving products and boosting marketing in order to compete for inflation-weary customers.
DoorDash Inc., the largest food delivery service in the US, issued an outlook for orders in the first quarter that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, serving as yet another sign that consumer demand remains resilient.
CVS Health Corp. shares climbed the most in more than 25 years after its fourth-quarter results signaled improved performance from the company whose insurance and drugstore units have been struggling.
Spirit Airlines Inc. rejected a refreshed acquisition offer from rival budget carrier Frontier Group Holdings Inc., saying it would instead proceed with a planned restructuring in bankruptcy.
Biogen Inc. forecast a bigger decline in annual sales than Wall Street expected, dimming the drugmaker’s strong finish to 2024.

Key events this week: