Climate law: overwhelming approval by the Swiss Abroad

The Swiss government pushed through its three proposals - in part thanks to the Swiss Abroad. © Keystone / Peter Klaunzer

The "yes" vote from the Swiss Abroad for the three proposals on June 18 was far more pronounced than that from within Switzerland. 

How did the Swiss Abroad vote on June 18? To analyse this is always subject to the limitation that only twelve Swiss cantons disclose figures. Even so, this data covers around 70% of the total Swiss Abroad electorate.

The analysis shows that the Swiss Abroad approval of the climate law was unequivocally clear at 76.8%. The voter approval from abroad is 17.7% higher than from within Switzerland.

This is a discrepancy that shows the acute differences in voting behaviour between Swiss Abroad and Swiss at home. Normally, the differences in voting patterns between the two groups are less than 10%.

A “yes” vote for the environment

The result of the climate vote corresponds to the predictions of Swiss Abroad voting behaviours on climate and environmental issues. The climate law, which was narrowly rejected by Swiss voters in June 2021, was approved by more than 72% of the Swiss Abroad.

Other environmental issues, such as an initiative against pesticide usage and a clean water initiative, were rejected at home by a large majority, but were greatly approved by the Swiss Abroad.

The swing to the green side was also evident in the 2019 elections: “If only the Swiss Abroad had voted in the 2019 parliamentary elections, the Greens would have been the strongest party,” writes political analyst Claude Longchamp in an analysis for SWI swissinfo.ch.

A reason for these voting behaviours could be due to the demographics of the Swiss Abroad, which is largely university educated.

Voting loyalty to the government

Another characteristic that political scientists have identified in the electorate of the Swiss Abroad can be seen in the tax-reform proposal: the Swiss Abroad tend to be more loyal to the government than compared to the voters at home.

A resounding 85.9% voted in favour of the tax reform proposal. That is also a full 7.4% points more than those who voted within Switzerland. In fact, parliament and all the cantons voted unanimously in favour of the tax reform proposal. Only the Social Democratic Party, some trade unions and a few NGOs were against it.

A blow to the Social Democratic Party

Because of the noticeable swing to the left of the political specturm in the electorate of the Swiss Abroad, this could also have determined much of the vote outcome. However, this time it had no noticeable influence.

In the parliamentary elections of 2015 and 2011, the Social Democratic Party was the strongest force among the Swiss Abroad, but was replaced by the Green Party in 2019. Political geographer Michael Herrman explained in “Let’s Talk”: “If you look at the voting behaviour, you notice that it is not simply a classic left-wing profile. On social issues or when it comes to ecological topics, this electorate votes in a strongly value-oriented way.”

This time, the Swiss Abroad did not support the Social Democratic Party, but instead voted in favour of the government proposals. This confirms an analysis made by the Social Democratic party Co-President Cédric Wermuth with regard to his party’s bitter defeat on the tax law: “The party base was caught in a dilemma.”

The party’s “no” to a proposal whose core issue it fundamentally embraces was too difficult to convey to voters at home, and probably even more difficult to those abroad. 

A deviation in the third vote on the Covid-19 law is also clear: the “yes” vote from abroad was 6.8% more pronounced than that from home, but this figure falls within the range of the normal deviation.

Incidentally, the pattern of loyalty to the government is also evident here. The bottom line is that the referendum on the Covid-19 law is simply a repeat of the vote on the Covid-19 law that took place in November 2021. The domestic electorate only shifted their vote by 0.1% points in just under two years, and that from abroad also only by 0.5% points.

However, while the voter turnout among the Swiss Abroad was relatively low at 23%, it was also within the normal range of between 20% and 25%. But the turnout from within Switzerland was also low.

E-voting

Their votes are counted at the communal or cantonal level and allocated to their respective cantons accordingly. Some Swiss Abroad had the opportunity to cast their vote by e-voting for the referendum on June 18, 2023, after a period of not being able to do so. Primarily voters from abroad who are registered in cantons of Basel, St Gallen and Thurgau benefited from this the e-voting platform.