Election barometer: Switzerland remains an island of political stability

Only two of the six biggest parties in Switzerland showed a change in voter support of more than one percentage point in a new poll. Keystone / Anthony Anex

One year to go before national elections, the Swiss political landscape appears to have changed very little despite upheavals like the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a poll showing voter support for the main political parties.

While Switzerland’s European neighbours have been undergoing major political turmoil, the Alpine nation remains an island of stability. In France and Italy, parliamentary elections this year led to major changes in the balance of power between the main parties. This was also the case last year in Germany, where the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) put an end to 15 years’ dominance by Angela Merkel and the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Switzerland seems immune to such political change, according to the first 2023 federal elections survey commissioned by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation – the parent company of SWI swissinfo.ch – published on Wednesday.

Since the previous elections, in 2019, public support for the biggest parties has remained steady, the poll by the Zurich-based Institute for Social and Political Studies (Sotomo) found. Only two of the six biggest parties showed a change in voter support of more than one percentage point.

Green wave subsides

Despite extreme heatwaves this year and the looming threat of an electricity shortage in winter, Green parties appear to have lost some political momentum. The centrist Liberal Green Party saw the biggest progression of all parties – an increase of 1.5 percentage points in support since 2019. But the left-wing Green Party lost 1.5 percentage points.

“The green wave has cancelled itself out to a certain extent,” the study noted.

In 2019 Green parties made historic gains at the expense of those to the right and the left in elections to the Swiss parliament.

One of the factors behind the recent slowdown is that the Green Party does not always manage to meet the expectations of its supporters, said Sotomo. While the party attracted certain voters from the left-wing Social Democratic Party owing to its climate policy, some of them are now disappointed with Green Party policies and are turning their backs, the polling institute said.

“As the environment is now a cross-party issue, only left-wing voters support the Greens,” said political scientist Sarah Bütikofer.

The Liberal Green Party, meanwhile, continues to benefit from the perception that it is offering something new politically. The centrist party, which was founded in 2007, appeals to certain centre-right Radical-Liberal, Centre and left-wing Green voters, the latest survey shows.

Support for the Radical-Liberal Party is also up by one percentage point compared with 2019. The party slipped in the polls a year ago, shaken by the sudden departure of its president, Petra Gössi. However, the election of Thierry Burkart as the new leader seems to have stabilised the ship, according to Sotomo.

With 16.1% of voter support, the Radicals are gaining ground on the Social Democrats (16.3%). The latter dropped 0.5 percentage points but has kept its position as Switzerland’s second-biggest party. Support for the right-wing Swiss People’s Party – still the largest party – and for the Centre and the Protestant Party remain stable.

Based on these overall results, Sotomo predicts a “small shift” to the right for the 2023 elections, after a swing to the left in 2019. Left-wing parties look like dropping two percentage points, while the right-wing parties should gain 1.5 points.

The war in Ukraine

Although the green wave seems to be subsiding, climate change remains the primary concern of Swiss residents. The latest poll found that climate change is one of the three most important political challenges for 43% of the electorate. Climate protection is also the most relevant issue for 23% of those questioned by Sotomo.

Election barometer

The SBC Election Barometer is an online poll by the Sotomo research institute in Zurich. It is the first poll ahead of the 2023 national elections.

It is based on valid data from 21,038 respondents. It was carried out between September 26 and October 7.

The margin of error is +/- 1.3% according to Sotomo. 

“The war in Ukraine has also had an impact on the Swiss political landscape but in an indirect way,” said political scientist Michael Hermann. He noted that the defence of the country or crime and security are of little concern to the Swiss at the moment. On the other hand, many people have discovered that Switzerland depends heavily on foreign energy supplies. Around 36% of those questioned said this is the greatest political challenge facing the country.

The pollsters pointed out that rising prices caused by the war in Ukraine are also having a certain impact on voters. For example, 29% of those surveyed say welfare and the cost of living are important political challenges. But health insurance premiums are of even greater concern to the population (32%), contributing to pressures on household budgets, the survey showed.

Translated from French by Simon Bradley