June 18 vote: climate, tax and Covid laws enjoy solid approval

The new climate law obliges Switzerland to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. Keystone/gaetan Bally

Less than two weeks from vote day, a poll shows the Swiss are likely to approve a new climate law, an overhaul of business tax rules, and an update to the country’s Covid-19 legislation.

Support for the climate law, which would commit Switzerland to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050, has however faded over the past month: 63% now say they are in favour, down nine percentage points since a poll in May.

Survey details

For its second of two representative surveys ahead of the June 18 vote, gfs.bern polled 12,655 eligible voters between May 23 and May 31 across all linguistic regions of Switzerland. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.

“A negative trend has picked up among all population segments, apart from on the left of the political spectrum, and among supporters of the Green Liberal Party,” says political analyst Martina Mousson from the gfs.bern institute, which carried out the latest survey on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SWI swissinfo.ch’s parent company).

Opposition driven by the right-wing People’s Party has intensified, Mousson says. On top of this, people who are distrust the government and people with lower educational qualifications are largely against the law. Overall, 36% say they will reject it, and just 1% are still undecided, according to the survey.

Some 60% of voters from the 800,000-strong Swiss Abroad community back the law.

Counting the cost

The main argument from the opposition camp – that the law will hit household budgets by driving up electricity prices – is convincing more and more people, but not enough for a majority. “That said, people with lower incomes are still mainly in favour,” Mousson says. She does not predict a repeat of 2021’s surprise rejection of the CO2 law, which voters threw out due to fears of the impact on their wallets.

Overall, the ‘yes’ campaign has managed to maintain a comfortable advance and build a broad social consensus behind the law, and “all signs point to it being accepted on June 18”, gfs.bern writes.

“It’s especially interesting that rural regions, which contributed to the rejection of the CO2 law, are this time backing the climate law,” Mousson adds.

Multinationals set for tax hike

A marked lack of suspense surrounds the second vote on June 18, a proposed tax-rate hike for multinational companies: 73% of the population backs the OECD-led plan, which will slap a minimum tax rate of 15% on Swiss-based companies with a turnover above €750 million (CHF728 million).

That leaves 24% of voters rejecting the law, and 3% undecided – response rates which are almost identical for Swiss citizens living abroad.

The reform, and the arguments for it, enjoy backing from all parts of the population: 77% notably see the measure as fair, in that it takes aim at big multinational groups rather than smaller businesses.

While the People’s Party – Switzerland’s biggest political group – has officially come out in favour of the reform, its supporters are nevertheless most sceptical: 37% of them would say ‘no’. Some 31% of respondents meanwhile agreed with the argument that at a time of economic difficulty, new taxes are not a good idea.

The poll also shows that supporters of the left-wing Social Democratic Party – which is against the reform – are now more closely aligned with their party position than before. But at 33%, they are still far from toeing the party line, which argues that the law will merely benefit rich Swiss cantons which are already home to many multinational companies.

Heading for a triple ‘yes’

The latest vote on Switzerland’s Covid-19 legislation is also not facing serious opposition. Opinion has not hugely shifted since May, and voters look set to approve – for a third time – the legal basis for the authorities’ handling of the coronavirus pandemic: 67% are in favour, 31% against, and 2% undecided.

All political parties and population segments intend to approve the Covid law, the survey suggests, with the exception of the People’s Party and those distrustful of government. The more educated and urban a voter is, the more he or she is likely to approve it, gfs.bern says.

As for concrete arguments, 70% of respondents agree that the law is important for the authorities – in case of a resurgence of the virus – to be able to quickly make new medicines available and to protect vulnerable groups.

Voters have already twice accepted the Covid law in national votes: in June 2021 with a majority of 60.2%, and again in November 2021 with 62%. This time around, “we should again see a ‘yes’ majority above 60%”, Mousson says.

Adapted from French by Domhnall O’Sullivan