Swiss politics set to shift to the right

The Swiss People’s Party is once again focusing on its favourite territory: at its delegates' meeting on July 1 the party launched an initiative to limit immigration. © Keystone / Urs Flueeler

Parties on the political right look like being the winners in October’s parliamentary elections, albeit to a lesser extent than in neighbouring countries, according to the third electoral barometer by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC).

Switzerland’s largest party has the wind back in its sails. The right-wing Swiss People’s Party has gained 1.5 percentage points since the previous federal elections in 2019, the poll conducted by the Zurich-based Institute for Social and Political Studies (Sotomo) revealed on Wednesday. This would give it 27.1% of the vote on October 22 – the third-best score in its history – and would offset some of the disappointment of 2019, when it lost 3.8 percentage points.

Conversely, voters continue to turn away from the left-wing Green Party, which is now polling at 10.2%, three percentage points down on four years ago. 

“The Greens are losing around half of the gains they made in 2019,” says Sotomo political scientist Sarah Bütikofer. This is a decline that the centrist Liberal Green Party, which has gained 0.5% percentage points, can’t compensate for. Several voters who backed the Greens four years ago seem to be returning to the left-wing Social Democratic Party, which has gained one percentage point.

The other parties remain stable, but there could be a historic shift in the political balance on October 22. 

The centre-right Radical-Liberal Party and The Centre are now virtually on an equal footing, the poll shows. For the first time The Centre could overtake the Radical-Liberals, the party established by the founders of the modern Swiss state. If so, The Centre would become the country’s third most powerful political force. 

“The successful merger of the Christian Democratic Party and the Conservative Democratic Party, which led to the creation of The Centre in 2021, has made this neck-and-neck situation possible,” says Sotomo’s Michael Hermann.

+Poll: the ‘Green wave’ subsides in SwitzerlandExternal link

If this shift were to occur, it would re-open the debate on the configuration of the Federal Council, Switzerland’s seven-person government. In accordance with the “magic formula”, the country’s three largest parties each occupy two seats in government and the seventh seat is held by the fourth-largest party. If The Centre beats the Radical-Liberal Party, the former could claim an additional seat.

+What is the “magic formula”External link

“In any case, it will be difficult for the Greens to continue to claim a place on the Federal Council,” says Sarah Bütikofer.

Election barometer

The third electoral barometer ahead of parliamentary elections on October 22 was carried out by the Sotomo research institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC), SWI swissinfo.ch’s parent company.

The data was collected between June 8 and 22. A total of 25,216 voters took part in the survey, both on the SBC online portals and on the Sotomo research institute website. The margin of error is +/- 1.2 percentage points.

Since survey participants are self-recruited (opt-in), the composition of the sample is not necessarily representative of the population. For example, men generally participate more than women in political surveys. Distortions in the sample are corrected by statistical weighting procedures.

‘Corrective’ vote

According to current voting intentions, the left has lost two percentage points. The parties on the right are up by just one point, due to the weakening of the Radical-Liberal Party. Despite the advance of the Swiss People’s Party, the Swiss parliament is unlikely to make as sharp a shift to the right as it did in 2015. 

“This is more of a corrective vote after the green and progressive surge of 2019,” says Michael Hermann. 

A polarisation of opinion does not seem to be increasing in Switzerland, stresses the Sotomo report. From this point of view, the evolution of Swiss politics contrasts with what can be seen in neighbouring countries. In Italy, Germany and France, polls show a strengthening of support for right-wing politics. This difference could be due to the fact that Switzerland is less affected by current crises than its European neighbours, particularly inflation, according to the researchers. 

Climate concerns

The electorate still considers climate change to be the most important political challenge facing Switzerland, despite the decline of the green parties. Voters’ clear acceptance of the climate law on June 18 confirms the importance of the issue.

“However, the Greens seem to be taking less advantage of this public support than they did in 2019, following the heatwave in the summer of 2018. The issue is still central, but it doesn’t seem to be mobilising as much support,” the political scientists say.

Despite being on the losing side of the climate law vote, the Swiss People’s Party benefited from its intense campaign opposing it. “This has helped the party raise its profile within its own ranks,” says Sarah Bütikofer.

The Swiss see rising health insurance premiums as the country’s second-biggest challenge and immigration as the third. The order of concerns is slightly different for the Swiss Abroad, who place Swiss-EU relations in second place before healthcare costs. This difference is primarily because most Swiss expats live in the EU and don’t have health insurance in Switzerland.

Credit Suisse and ‘wokeism’ 

The Swiss Abroad also differ from voters at home when it comes to the subjects that annoy them, as the graph below shows. In particular, far more Swiss Abroad cite “the weakening of neutrality” and “abuses in the asylum system” as sources of irritation.

However, the three issues that raise Swiss blood pressure the most are the same whether voters live inside or outside the country: the mismanagement of Credit Suisse and the excessive bonuses awarded to its executives, the climate activists who block roads by gluing their hands to the pavement, and debates surrounding gender or “wokeism” (an awareness of and sensitivity to social injustice). 

The emotions triggered by these last two issues could work in favour of the Swiss People’s Party, according to the political scientists. The party declared war on wokeism at the beginning of the year and condemned road blockades in its campaign against the climate law.