Votes on March 3: suspense surrounding the 13th pension payment initiative

Swiss voters could refuse to a supplementary retirement pension initiative in a federal referendum on March 3. © Keystone / Christian Beutler

The introduction of a 13th pension payment initiative appeals to 61% of Swiss people, according to the first Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) poll ahead of the federal vote on March 3. However, this lead may not be enough for the initiative to be accepted. Meanwhile, Swiss voters are likely to refuse to raise the retirement age in the other pension vote taking place that day. 

Will the Swiss agree to increase their retirement pensions? The question remains open, according to the results of the first Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) poll carried out in early January by the gfs.bern institute.

On March 3, Swiss people will vote on a people’s initiativeExternal link put forward by the trade unions entitled “Better living in retirement”. The initiative calls for the introduction of a 13th old-age and survivors’ (known as the AHV/AVS) pension payment, similar to the 13th monthly salary that is widespread in Switzerland.

According to the latest opinion poll, 61% of Swiss citizens are currently in favour of the initiative while 36% are opposed and 3% are undecided.

Backing for the initiative among the Swiss Abroad is more pronounced, with 80% of those polled in support. “This difference is difficult to explain,” says gfs.bern political scientist Martina Mousson. However, she notes that this corresponds to the usual pattern, since the Swiss Abroad generally tends to vote more to the left than the domestic electorate.

The parties on the right and in the centre are against an additional monthly pension payment. The survey shows, however, that the electorate of the right-wing Swiss People’s Party and the Centre do not follow the official party line, as a majority are in favour of the initiative.

Only those close to the centre-right Radical-Liberal Party and the centrist Liberal Green Party are opposed to the proposal. All other groups back it.

Join the discussion about the 13th OASI pension proposal with citizens in Switzerland and with the Swiss Abroad.

‘The campaign will be decisive’

The arguments put forward by those in favour of the initiative have so far succeeded in winning over a majority of the electorate. In particular, 80% of those polled felt that it would be a decisive step towards improving the financial situation of pensioners, who are struggling to cope with the rising cost of living. In all, 57% felt that a 13th monthly AHV pension payment, the first pillar of old-age provision, would compensate for the decrease of returns from the occupational pension plan, or second pillar.

The Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) poll 

For the first demographic survey ahead of the federal referendum on March 3, 2024, gfs.bern surveyed 19,490 eligible voters between January 8 and 21. The statistical margin of error is between /-2.8 percentage points.

So far, only one argument put forward by the “no” camp has managed to convince a majority of those polled: 55% of those questioned believe that the additional pension payment would lead to an increase in value-added tax (VAT) and social security contributions deducted from salaries. Only 41% thought that the costs of the project would jeopardise the Swiss pension system. The authors of the study point out that this is the most effective argument.

Despite a rather favourable starting point for the initiative, the outcome of the vote is currently impossible to predict. The political scientists at gfs.bern expect the camp against the initiative to make gains over the coming weeks, but it is difficult to predict what the extent of these gains might look like. This corresponds to the classic trend in voting intentions for a federal people’s initiative: they gradually align with the recommendations of the Federal Council and Parliament.

“The campaign will be decisive,” says Martina Mousson. The second opinion poll, which is to be published on February 21, should be more revealing.

No chance for retirement at 66

The young Radical-Liberals could suffer a crushing defeat on March 3. Their initiative to raise the retirement age to 66External link in connection with life expectancy data is heading for a clear rejection.

At this stage, 53% of those questioned intend to oppose the initiative, presented as a solution to the problem of financing pensions. In all, 41% are in favour, while 6% do not yet know how they will vote.

Here again, slightly more Swiss Abroad (46%) support the initiative, while 48% are opposed. This could be explained in part by the fact that the latter are not necessarily affected by the retirement age in Switzerland.  

The Radical-Liberal Party stands alone against the rest in defending its initiative. Its electorate is also the only one to overwhelmingly support the proposal. Supporters of all the other parties are against it, according to the poll. Supporters of the initiative include those who have already reached retirement age and are therefore not affected by an increase.

The “no” camp is also winning people over with its arguments. In particular, 67% of those surveyed felt that the initiative would increase injustice, since the rich would still be able to retire before reaching the official retirement age. A total of 65% also felt that the initiative did not take into account the difficulties that many older people face in finding a job.

Only one argument in favour of the text managed to win over a majority of favourable opinions: 53% recognised that raising the retirement age, a measure already taken in other European countries, was necessary to finance the old-age and survivors’ (known as the AHV/AVS) pension in the long term.

Original French text proofread by Samuel Jaberg/translated by amva