Venezuelan opposition in Switzerland: Maduro regime ‘knows it doesn’t have a majority’

A Venezuelan soldier in a polling station in Caracas on Sunday. The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved

Sunday’s elections in Venezuela have been followed by controversy and protest. The Swiss-based coordinator of Venezuela’s opposition, Erika Montañez, explains why she got involved in the campaign and what she now expects from incumbent president Nicolás Maduro.

There are many reasons why Venezuela is not a democratic state. And yet, the recent presidential elections in the South American country were eagerly anticipated. How would strongman ruler Maduro react if the opposition won? ObserversExternal link were sceptical that he would simply give up power. But at the same time, there were hopes that a peaceful transfer of power could be possible.

Even after the candidacy of María Corina Machado, the leader of the opposition alliance, was ruled out, momentum against Maduro did not ebb: Edmundo González, a retired diplomat who stood in Machado’s place, enjoyed a big lead in polls over the past month.

The official results of Sunday’s ballot, declaring Maduro the winner, are now being called into question internationally. In Venezuela there have meanwhile been protests, with at least two people losing their livesExternal link.

Some of the roughly 1,500 Venezuelans in Switzerland also campaigned on behalf of the opposition and were present at the embassy in Bern on Sunday to observe the ballot procedures.

Erika Montañez, the coordinator of the Venezuelan opposition in Switzerland, tells SWI swissinfo.ch about the electoral observation efforts and why she got involved in the campaign.

SWI swissinfo.ch: You organised the election campaign on behalf of the Venezuelan opposition here in Switzerland. On Sunday you gathered with other activists in the embassy in Bern. What impressions did you get about how the vote was run?

Erika Montañez: The efforts to mobilise Venezuelan voters in Switzerland had a positive result, which was clear to see on Sunday. When the team for the defence of the vote met at 7am at the Venezuelan embassy in Switzerland, three people were already queuing to cast their ballot, even though they knew that this was only possible from 8am. People travelled a long way to vote, for example from canton Graubünden or from Geneva. This shows the enthusiasm and motivation felt by many participants.

As well as this, our vote defence team was involved in logistical plans to ensure that elderly people could also cast their ballots, despite physical ailments. All in all, Venezuelans in Switzerland voted as a family: there was a lively atmosphere, in tune with Venezuelan culture, and it all went normally, without incident.

SWI: How many supporters of Nicolás Maduro did you meet on Sunday in Bern?

EM: We did a survey outside the polling station, and interestingly, all those who agreed to reveal their choice told us they had voted for González – before we had even asked them. There was no point at which we heard from somebody who had backed Maduro.

Then on Monday, at the vote count with the ambassador and his colleagues, we saw a small number of votes for the incumbent president: González got a majority of 85%, while Maduro came out with just 11%. The official results in Switzerland thus show that he doesn’t have a majority – not just this, but the difference is huge.

The opposition vote defence team at the Venezuelan embassy in Bern on Monday. conmariacorina.suiza / Instagram

SWI: Some eight million Venezuelans live outside their home country – that’s almost a third of the population. Why have so many people, like you, left the country?

EM: There are lots of reasons. Everybody has a different reason, which led him or her to leave.

It’s no secret that Venezuela is currently stuck in an economic crisis, and that the health system is getting worse, security is falling, as is quality of life. We also have a country with an undemocratic government, no rule of law, no public policies to guarantee an education, a dignified job, and stable purchasing power. As such, it’s difficult for many to plan for a stable future, and they are forced to look elsewhere for better conditions.

That’s the overall situation. Then there are of course individual reasons, such as political persecution.

SWI: The national electoral authorities declared current president Maduro the winner of the vote with 51%. When dictators hold votes, the leaders often get 90% or more. Is the tight result a sign that the vote was carried out properly?

EM: Before answering, it’s important to clarify that in Venzuela there is no separation of powers, which is a fundamental principle of democratic systems. And since the government fully controls the nation’s institutions, the electoral authority is never going to call a result in favour of the opposition. The best example of this is the disqualification – for no reason whatsoever – of María Corina Machado as a presidential candidate.

However, the Maduro regime still has to present a result that appears “credible” from its perspective. Because it knows full well that it does not have a majority behind it, and a higher percentage would be completely unrealistic. However, we all know that the electoral authority has announced something that doesn’t correspond to reality. And the fact that the three official opposition observers – Delsa Solórzano, Perkins Rocha and Juan Caldera – were denied access shows not only the lack of transparency, but also that the election results announced are a misrepresentation.

SWI: Over 100 supporters of the opposition campaign were in prisonExternal link before the vote, and its candidate was disqualified from standing. Why did you get involved in a campaign within a system which so severely restricts free procedures? Last time, the opposition simply boycotted the vote.

EM: Building an apparatus with observers, deputies, a vote defence team and a mobilisation team was crucial. This time there is a huge level of organisation, a popular citizens’ movement with a lot of energy and a hope that we can find a way out of an economic and social crisis which has become much worse in recent years.

María Corina Machado managed to organise an entire campaign structure for the opposition primaries in 2023 and now for the presidential elections. People are more convinced and the conditions are in place for a confrontation with the regime.

Edmundo González and María Corina Machado at a rally in Maracaibo, July 23. The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved

SWI: Opposition leader Machado and her candidate Gónzalez have said that they do not recognise the result. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also expressed his doubts about it. In your view, what is the best-case scenario, and what is the most threatening scenario that could now materialise?

EM: Machado and González have made it clear that they will not give up until a peaceful transition is achieved. In this sense, the best scenario would be to put pressure on Maduro’s regime until the votes are counted transparently and the real result is known.

The most dangerous scenario would be that the Venezuelan people do not wait for a peaceful transition and decide to take action that would put lives at risk due to state repression – repression that the government could use to continue its rule and remain in power.

Adapted from German by DeepL/dos