Elections 2023: Greens look set to lose ground

After big gains in 2019, things are looking less rosy for the Greens this time around. © Keystone / Urs Flueeler

Ten days from Swiss elections, the Greens continue to lose ground and could slip below 10% of the overall vote, a poll has found. Concerns about immigration are driving a shift to the right.

Green parties across Europe are struggling, and Switzerland is not an exception. After a historically strong performance in 2019, the Swiss Green Party and Liberal Green Party look set to lose out this year, according to the final election barometer carried out by the Sotomo institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC).

The survey shows the Greens dropping 3.5 percentage points on 2019 and slipping to 9.7% of the total vote – such a result would mean losing over half of what they made up between 2015 and 2019. The Liberal Greens (a more business-friendly ecological group from the centre-right) could drop 1 percentage point.

Sotomo’s Michael Hermann says the impending losses are however relative: “the two [Green] groups are nevertheless looking at their second-best result ever”, he says.

The country’s other major left-wing group, the Social Democrats, meanwhile look set to gain from the Green setback by picking up 1.5 percentage points, the barometer shows. Political scientist Sarah Bütikofer from Sotomo says the two parties “are like communicating vessels; when one gains, the other loses”.

At the other end of the political spectrum, the conservative right-wing Swiss People’s Party could land the third-best result in its history: the poll shows it gaining 2.5 percentage points to reach 28.1% of the vote.

The race for third is still hotly disputed between two parties: The Centre and the Radical-Liberals (centre-right). As in the previous barometer in August, the pair are virtually neck and neck at 14.3% and 14.1%, respectively. The outcome of this race could be decisive for the future formation of the country’s seven-member consensus government: the so-called “magic formula” traditionally allocates two seats to the third biggest party and one to the fourth.

Overall, the projected advances of the People’s Party and the heavy Green losses herald a slight shift to the right of parliament as a whole, the Sotomo poll suggests. However, the gains forecast for the Social Democrats and slight losses for the Radical-Liberals mean the rightward movement will be less extreme than in 2015.

Survey details

The last electoral barometer ahead of elections on October 22, 2023 was carried out by the Sotomo research institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation, SWI swissinfo.ch’s parent company. The data was gathered online between September 22 and October 5. Some 31,850 voters took part. The margin of error is +/- 1.2 percentage points.

Health insurance takes centre stage

The recent announcement of a big jump in the cost of mandatory health insurance next year has shaken up the list of voter concerns: 51% of respondents now say insurance premiums represent the biggest political challenge facing the country – up from 39% at the end of August.

For Hermann, this development “plays in favour of the Social Democrats, who position themselves according to social issues”.

The issue of immigration has also climbed the agenda in Switzerland as migratory pressures have risen in Europe. Some 35% of survey respondents say immigration is one of the top three challenges facing the country. The barometer also shows that this issue directly influences which parties voters choose: “this explains the gains of the People’s Party”, Bütikofer says.

Despite the Green losses in the latest survey, voters still consider climate change a major issue. But its importance is shrinking: 36% of respondents now say it’s a major political challenge facing Switzerland, compared to 42% in the run-up to the 2019 elections.

“Even if global warming is more visible now than four years ago, it is less of a mobilising factor. People maybe feel helpless faced by the issue, or think that Switzerland isn’t capable of solving it,” says Hermann.

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Swiss Abroad outlook

The Swiss population around the world answers slightly differently when it comes to major political issues. Since emigrants don’t pay health insurance back home, they are logically less concerned (37%) about the cost of premiums. Reforming the pension system is also less pressing for Swiss citizens abroad.

Rather, issues touching on international relations are seen as most important by this group: namely, ties with the European Union, as well as questions of independence and sovereignty.

Translated from French by Domhnall O’Sullivan