How Trump’s orders could affect Switzerland

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US President Donald Trump signed dozens of executive orders on his first day back at the White House that disrupt global politics and business as usual. What does this mean for Switzerland?

The flurry of action from the returning administration – ranging from pulling the US out of the Paris Climate Accords to declaring a national state of emergency in the southern border with Mexico – sent shock waves around the world. While many leaders have reacted sharply given the scale and significance of some of Trump’s proposed changes, Switzerland appears unshaken. Its government has not issued an official response and seems to be adopting a “wait-and-see” approach.

Rate cuts and oil prices 

The potential impact of Trump’s economic agenda on global trade was a recurring topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss town of Davos. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China, and Europe to feed the coffers of a new external revenue service.

During a video address to global leadersExternal link gathered in Davos, Trump advocated for lower interest rates and cheaper oil prices. He also emphasised the need for immediate interest rate cuts, urging other nations to follow suit. “Interest rates should drop immediately,” Trump stated, “and they should be lowered worldwide.” 

He added: “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] to bring down the cost of oil.”

Oil prices turned negative as Trump spoke, Reuters reportedExternal link, meaning companies are now paying traders to take oil off their hands. The Euro dipped and the US dollar swung between gains and losses against a basket of foreign currencies. The Swiss franc weakened slightly against the dollar.

Lower oil prices creates problems for Russia, where the lion share of the federal budget relies on oil and natural gas revenues. Trump has said he believes lowering oil prices will lead to a swift end to the war in Ukraine. 
 
Moscow hopes a meeting between Russian president Vladimir Putin and Trump – perhaps in SwitzerlandExternal link – could yield a “window of opportunity” to ease sanctions. But Trump has made it clearExternal link in a social media post that he is no friend of Moscow and plans to outperform Democrats in foreign policy by ending the war in Ukraine on his terms. 

One of Trump’s most notorious campaign claims was that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24-hours, a promise his policymakers have since dialled back.

Switzerland held a Summit on Peace in Ukraine in the summer of 2024, without Russia’s participation. Russian officials have not been welcomed at WEF since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Swiss concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on gold 

The gold market, a key sector for Switzerland, is particularly concerned by the potential implications of new trade policies under Trump.

Industry insiders worry about the potential introduction of universal tariffs on metal imports, including gold and silver. Such tariffs could disrupt the established connection between gold prices in London and New York.  

This connection relies on interest rate calculations for the time difference between spot trading (immediate purchases) and futures trading (delayed contracts). If tariffs were imposed, they would created added costs to the market, potentially causing gold prices in New York to rise significantly. For instance, a 10% tariff could result in a 10% increase in futures prices, destabilising the market and leading to financial losses for institutions. 

Switzerland, as a financial and gold refining hub, would also be affected. The Alpine nation is home to four major global gold refiners: Metalor, MKS Pamp, Valcambi, and Argor-Heraeus. These refineries process a significant portion of the world’s gold, and any new tariffs or restrictions could heavily impact their operations, creating ripple effects across the global gold supply chain. 

On his way back from Davos, Dr. Rahul Sahgal, the CEO of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce, explained that everything Trump says “has an impact on the world and also on Switzerland.”

“It is still rather unclear what actually is going to happen [for gold],” he told SWI swissinfo.ch. “But it’s not going to be a devastating thing unless the sectors are singled out. And at the moment, I do not have any signal that it could be gold, for example, or any other sector”.  

Barry Bennett is a Republican political strategist. He served as an advisor to Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former presidential candidate Ben Carson and then became senior advisor to Trump during his election campaign.

“With regards to precious metals the US is a net consumer of these vital supplies,” he told SWI swissinfo.ch. “The US needs a stable supply without massive geo-political risks. This is a massive opportunity for the potential trade. You will hear tough talk, but the decisions will be very rational.” 

Barry Bennett, a Republican political strategist, served as an advisor to Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Presidential candidate Ben Carson and later senior advisor to President Trump election campaign Yuri Gripas / Reuters

Bennett tells SWI swissinfo.ch that the economic relationship between the United States and Switzerland “has never been stronger” and there is an “opportunity to make it even greater”.

He adds: “President Trump has spent his first few days in office carrying out his campaign promises which might be unusual in modern politics but there is nothing we didn’t fully expect.”

According to Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel, Switzerland’s trade with the United States is highly significant, and any tariffs would have a substantial impact on its economy. 

Still a mediator and partner

The former senior advisor to the Trump election campaign sees an opportunity for Switzerland “to be the arbiter of common sense as we wind down a massive and extremely deadly war [in Ukraine] and build a new eastern Europe hub” for business and diplomacy.

“The Swiss have always been excellent at understanding the difference between politics and business,” says Bennett. “The post- Ukraine War period is a tremendous opportunity for all of Europe but for the Swiss maybe even a larger opportunity. “

The financing opportunities alone, he notes, are massive. “Getting new supply lines of energy into Ukraine while rebuilding the export capacity is an unmatched opportunity outside of Venezuela,” adds Bennett. “The Russian economy will continue to lag. There remain challenges, of course. But those who can’t seen past the challenges to the potential will miss this opportunity.”

Dr. Rahul Sahgal is the CEO of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce Darrin Vanselow

Dr Sahgal underlines that the new US presidential administration’s  economic plan – which he says is focused on reducing bureaucracy, cutting regulations, addressing energy prices, and fostering a competitive tax environment, along with investment in AI, robotics, defense, and aerospace – will create dynamics likely more favorable for well-positioned Swiss companies than the current situation.

“Among all European countries, Switzerland is best positioned to benefit from the kind of economic wave that’s going to come in these sectors,” he said.

In Davos, on the fourth day of his presidency, Trump stated that he anticipated significant foreign investments in the American economy. He emphasised that companies should come and manufacture their goods in the United States; otherwise, tariffs would be imposed on imported products.

“Switzerland is the sixth-largest foreign direct
investor in the US,” notes Sahgal, as well as the largest investor in research and development. He believes Switzerland already fulfills Trump’s demand for manufacturing in the United States and that Trump’s presidency is not necessarily bad news for the Alpine country.

“I’m sure you if you look hard enough, you’re going to read hundreds of things in the newspapers, how terrible it’s going to be for pharma, for gold [because of Trump’s new policy],” Saghal said. “But essentially, I believe that it’s going to be very good.”

Edited by Veronica De Vore/ds