Investors Brace for US Junk Debt’s Last Gasp Before Election

(Bloomberg) — September and the beginning of October might be the last opportunity that US investors have to buy newly issued high-yield debt this year.

Companies are expected to sell between $55 billion to $65 billion of junk bonds and leveraged loans next month, according to Barclays Plc. That’s a pick up from August’s low levels, when bankers and buysiders typically head to the beach, and before the burst of sales that usually follows the Labor Day holiday.

Some sales that were delayed at the start of this month could also end up rolling into September. Global markets were roiled in early August after a weak July jobs report, underwhelming technology company earnings and a rate hike from the Bank of Japan. That spooked market participants and led to several deals being scuppered.

But after the rush in September and October, new offerings are expected to taper off as corporations try to avoid any possible tumult connected with the US presidential election in November, as well as looming interest-rate cuts signaled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Some companies will sell debt, but activity will probably be relatively light overall.

“A lot of supply that is visible and coming in September and October is M&A that has been signed up in past months. This is the natural time table for it to come,” said Marc Warm, global co-head of leveraged and debt capital markets at UBS Group AG. “The fact that there was some pent-up supply of best efforts deals because of volatility we saw, that’s also going to contribute to a lot of supply in September.”

Market participants say much of the issuance will likely comprise already announced deals for mergers and acquisitions — a welcome relief after a wave of repricings and refinancings this year. 

The prospect of lower interest rates is also boosting optimism among dealmakers as that would translate into lower interest burdens on fresh buyout loans. Traders are now pricing in close to four 25-basis-point cuts by the Fed through year-end.

“The pipeline for M&A is robust,” said Cade Thompson, head of US debt capital markets at KKR & Co. “While lately this hasn’t translated into increased transaction volumes, expectations of upcoming rate cuts could catalyze activity.”

A new administration after the November election could also mean regulatory changes and tax policy shifts, which could trip up companies later. 

“There’s the uncertain regulatory environment, but on the other side you have rates creeping down so it may be a good time to hit the market because it could go the other way,” said David Rosenberg, head of liquid performing credit at Oaktree Capital Management. “You’ll see normal refinancing — a lot of that has been done already with a lot of money coming into credit. You’re also going to see some M&A.”

Among the deals expected to launch in September is a roughly $2 billion debt package supporting KKR’s buyout of education technology company Instructure Holdings Inc., as well as financing for KKR’s acquisition of financial adviser Janney Montgomery Scott, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named discussing private information.

A $2.7 billion debt package has also been lined up for Bain Capital and Reverence Capital Partners’ buyout of Envestnet Inc., which includes a private credit component and a revolver, Bloomberg previously reported. 

KKR, Bain, Envestnet and Janney declined to comment, while Instructure and Reverence didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

–With assistance from Andrew Kostic and Josyana Joshua.

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