Swiss interior minister orders probe after pension miscalculation

The Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) adjusted the AHV financial outlook on Tuesday. Keystone / Gaetan Bally

Old-age and survivors’ (known as the AHV/AVS) pension expenditure in 2033 is likely to be around CHF4 billion ($4.7 billion), or approximately 6% lower than previously calculated. The Federal Social Insurance Office (FSIO) adjusted the AHV financial outlook accordingly on Tuesday.

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The FSIO informed the media in Bern that checks had revealed implausibly high AHV expenditure projections for the long term. This discrepancy was due to two incorrect formulas in the calculation programme. The contribution deficit is now expected to rise to around CHF 4 billion by 2033, compared to the previous assumption of over CHF7 billion.

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To address this issue, the FSIO created two alternative models for the calculations and commissioned two research institutes to develop independent models by the end of August. These models will be used to validate the newly calculated financial prospects and will be published in September.

Interior minister launches investigation after AHV miscalculation

Interior Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider has ordered an administrative enquiry following the incorrect calculation of the AHV financial perspectives using faulty formulas. This is intended to clarify how this error could have occurred.

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The Zurich law firm Bratschi has been commissioned to carry out the investigation, the Federal Department of Home Affairs (FDHA) announced on Tuesday. Bratschi is one of the largest law firms specialising in commercial law, tax law, and public law in Switzerland. According to its own information, it employs over one hundred lawyers.

The results of the investigation should be available by the end of the year. Together with the FSIO, the FDHA intends to take measures to ensure the reliability of the financial outlook. The FDHA did not provide any further details.

With regard to the financing of the 13th AHV pension and the AHV reform, reliable, verified, and high-quality data is essential, the FDHA wrote. The administrative enquiry therefore also includes the quality control processes and particularly the reliability of the mathematical models.

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According to initial estimates, expenditure on old-age and survivors’ insurance (AHV) in 2033 was overestimated by around CHF4 billion. The AHV’s financial situation is therefore better than assumed. The calculation error was recognised during checks carried out in connection with the implementation of the 13th AHV pension. The AHV is the foundation of the Swiss pension scheme. More than 2.5 million pensioners currently receive an AHV pension.

Note: This article has been updated to reflect new information

Translated from German by DeepL/amva

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