Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) has lowered economic growth forecasts for both this year and next, against a backdrop of global uncertainty.
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L’économie suisse au ralenti pour deux ans
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Growth is likely to be below the historical average for at least two more years.
“The general climate of uncertainty on the economic and trade front continues to weigh on the outlook for the world economy, and hence for the Swiss economy”, say Seco forecasters in a press release issued on Tuesday. They assume that tensions will not escalate into a global trade war, but do not completely rule out this risk.
According to this basic scenario, gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for sporting events should grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, whereas estimates dating back to December were still forecasting growth of 1.5% and 1.7% respectively.
Risk of “extreme” scenario
Growth is therefore likely to be below the historical average of 1.8%, with current uncertainties complicating investment decisions and slowing the economy, according to Seco.
However, the low rate of inflation, forecast at 0.3% for 2025, should support consumer spending by private households, while some increase in employment is expected. Construction activity should also continue to recover, say the specialists.
The recovery should take shape from 2026 onwards, when the European countries will gradually emerge from the current period of weakness and breathe new life into Swiss exports in particular.
“However, much more extreme developments are still possible” on the trade front. The slowdown in the international economy that would result from such a negative scenario would have a significant impact on Switzerland’s foreign trade and its economic situation.
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