Could a Swiss-hosted summit bring peace to Ukraine?

Switzerland is convinced that a new path is required to end the suffering in Ukraine. Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.

Switzerland has announced its intention to host an international conference aimed at peacefully resolving the war in Ukraine. 

The Alpine state is drawing on its reputation as a neutral global peace broker – a stance that has recently been challenged by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. 

But given the divide of opinion over Ukraine between the West and other countries – notably China – is such a conference feasible? And if the summit can get off the ground, what could it achieve?  

Details of the proposed conference – such as agenda, attendees or timing – have yet to be declared. SWI swissinfo.ch looks at some of the possibilities. 

What do we know so far about the conference? 

Not much, besides that Geneva has apparently been selected as the host venue. And this leads to media speculation that Switzerland is working things out as it goes along. 

+ Wanted: a politically convenient definition of neutrality

Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis hopes that heads of state will attend. “It would be more of the same if we were to organise it at ministerial level,” he said. 

The conference plan was initiated at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the fringes of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. It has been presented as a joint exercise between Switzerland and Ukraine.  

In 2022 Zelensky presented a ten-point peace plan, which includes the withdrawal of all Russian troops, the return of Russian occupied territory in Ukraine and an investigation into war crimes. Russia has consistently rejected these proposals. 

“There is no guarantee that we will achieve the ideal quickly. But we are doing what is possible as quickly as possible.” Ignazio Cassis. 

On Sunday, Davos hosted the fourth National Security Advisors’ Meeting on Ukraine, which was attended by representative of 82 countries and international organisations (not Russia or China). “It’s just a matter of talking for the sake of talking,” said a Kremlin spokesperson. “Without our participation, any discussion has no prospects.”   

Would Russia attend the proposed Geneva summit? 

It looks extremely doubtful that Russia will even be invited. 

The main challenge is for Switzerland to secure the attendance of powerful countries that have yet to fully condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Top of that list is China, followed by the likes of India, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Brazil – the so-called Global South.  

“Switzerland has no real leverage to persuade China and other key countries to participate,” said the Neue Zürcher Zeitung newspaper. “A problem could also be that Switzerland has strongly linked itself to the Ukrainian peace formula with the current initiative.” 

What could the summit hope to achieve? 

That’s an open question because no detailed objectives have so far been shared by Switzerland or Ukraine. 

“The Swiss foreign ministry assumes that the planned summit is just the beginning of a longer process,” said Philipp Burkhardt, political editor at Swiss public radio, SRF. 

The Geneva peace conference would probably not be enough to bring about peace, but rather achieve closer international consensus on how to end the war. 

Why has the conference been mooted now? 

The war has been raging in Ukraine for nearly two years. There is little immediate prospect of a decisive military victory for either side. 

Ukraine fears that Western allies are losing resolve in the costly exercise of helping it beat Russia. The presidential election in the United States in November might bring a regime change that is less supportive of Ukraine. 

“It’s a smart strategy. If things don’t go well on the battlefield, Ukraine wants to at least make a breakthrough on the diplomatic level,” stated an editorial on the Watson news portal. “Switzerland is a ‘means to an end’. Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Bern was not so much about weapons and money, but about Switzerland’s prestige as a neutral mediator.” 

Could Switzerland make the conference happen? 

This task is a big test of Switzerland’s diplomatic clout among other countries. 

As home to the International Committee of the Red Cross and depository state for the Geneva Conventions, Switzerland has a generations-long reputation for successfully mediating violent global disputes. 

But the Alpine state is struggling to keep out of the conflict completely and has been condemned by Russia for taking the side of Ukraine. 

The Swiss media view the government’s offer to organise the conference as a noble but likely doomed effort to retain its international reputation. 

“Russia’s participation is unrealistic, China’s participation is highly uncertain. Another argument against the conference is that the war is still in full swing. As long as both sides harbour hopes of success through military means, negotiations are not a priority,” said the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper. 

Failure could possibly have a salutary effect for Switzerland. It would have to finally realise that neutrality and good offices no longer have any meaning in today’s geopolitical environment. What counts is power and influence,” believes Watson. 

But Cassis is convinced that a new approach is needed to break the stalemate. “It would be illusory to think now: let’s wait for the UN Security Council to solve the problem,” he said.