Possible Ukrainian counter-offensive would be very risky, warns Swiss military expert

The damaged Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson, Ukraine, used to be the main crossing point over the Dnipro River in the south of the country. Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly established positions on the eastern side of the Dnipro River in the south of the country, giving rise to speculation that this could be an early sign of a long-awaited spring counter-offensive. While the river is strategically important, this is not the start of an offensive, according to a Swiss military expert.

Swiss public radio, SRF, spoke to Mauro MantovaniExternal link, head of the Strategic Studies Department at the Military Academy of the federal technology institute ETH Zurich.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported on April 22 that geolocated footage from pro-Kremlin military bloggers indicated that Ukrainian troops had established a foothold near the town of Oleshky, along with “stable supply lines” to their positions.

Mauro Mantovani, head of the Strategic Studies Department at ETH Zurich’s Military Academy in Switzerland. Swiss armed forces

SRF News: When will the expected spring offensive begin?

Mauro Mantovani: It will certainly not start before mid-May because the mud season is longer than usual this year. There is also no build-up of troops that would indicate an imminent offensive. This applies to both sides. But political pressure is mounting on Ukraine to carry out this long-awaited offensive. However, there is a huge risk of failure, especially given the deadlocked fronts.

SRF News: So there are no signs of any progress?

M.M.: That’s right. The ground is rain-sodden and the roads are difficult to drive on. There is a bad development on the east bank of the Dnipro anyway. Therefore, you can’t really believe that from there or along the entire length of the front, there will be any extensive advances in the next few weeks.

SRF News: If this latest move is not the start of a spring offensive, what is the river crossing all about?

M.M.: There may have been several landings by Ukrainian forces on the eastern side of the Dnipro. But it was more about reconnaissance.

Perhaps it was also about infiltrating soldiers who are supposed to join up with resistance fighters in the occupied territories. In any case, the Ukrainians have not yet established a permanent bridgehead.

SRF News: Are they ready for an offensive?

M.M.: Overall, probably not, if you look at the information from the recent data leak in the United States. For example, the secret documents confirmed that Ukraine’s air defences are overwhelmed and that its ammunition reserves are running low. The public also learned more about weapons that have already been delivered and about locations of the Ukrainian army, plus locations of the Russian army.

This is of course sensitive information, especially concerning the expected spring offensive. The Pentagon gives this little chance, because it is assumed that Russian air superiority in the south will increase.

SRF News: What is the current state of troop attrition?

M.M.: The loss of people and material is a closely guarded secret on both sides. Estimates vary widely. We do not know reliably how high the stocks are, what the Russian defence industry will produce in the next few months and whether, for example, missiles from Iran or North Korea, perhaps even from China, will arrive. Obviously, the Russians have the larger manpower reserves. On the other hand, the level of training of the Ukrainian soldiers is higher due to their tactical and technical training in the West, and their combat motivation.

Overall, we can probably say that the total number of soldiers lost on both sides is more than 300,000; that is, soldiers killed and wounded. At the same time, however, we can also say that both sides are willing to accept these enormous losses, which are rising on a daily basis, for military end goals that remain unchanged. Therefore, unfortunately, there is no end in sight to this war.