Swiss Abroad views: what voting records show

Political scientists Claude Longchamp and Sarah Bütikofer will be taking part in our series on election observations for the Swiss Abroad. Illustration: Helen James / swissinfo.ch

Series Swiss Abroad views, Episode 1:

Swiss voters abroad tend to follow the government line, although occasionally voting less conservative. In recent elections, they proved to be more environmentally minded than their domestic counterparts. Politically, their votes are rarely decisive. But it can happen. 

If Swiss citizens living abroad had been the only ones to vote in the 2019 House of Representatives elections, the left-wing Green Party would have become the country’s strongest political player by a decent margin.  

In the cantons that report the votes for the Swiss Abroad separately, the Green Party obtained a share of just under 21% of the vote. That compares to 16% for the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, 15% for the Social Democratic Party, 13% for the Christian Democratic Party [which folded into The Centre party in 2021], and 9% for the centrist Liberal Green Party.  

In both the 2011 and 2015 House of Representatives elections, the Swiss Abroad gave the bulk of their support to the Social Democratic Party. On both occasions the Social Democratic Party ranked ahead of the People’s Party. They were followed by the Green Party, the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Green Party. The overall party balance remained unchanged across both votes. 

During the House of Representatives elections of 2019, the ecological trend among Swiss Abroad voters came to the fore. The Green Party gained eight percentage points and the Green Liberal Party another solid five. The Social Democrats and the People’s Party, until now the strongest parties, suffered the biggest drops in support. 

What is “Swiss Abroad views?” 

Political scientists Sarah Bütikofer and Claude Longchamp are covering the 2023 election year for SWI swissinfo.ch from the perspective of Swiss voters abroad. In 10 articles, they will look at topics on the horizon that are of particular interest to the Swiss Abroad.  

Political analysis of party strength in Switzerland typically focuses on the result of the House of Representatives. It comprises 200 parliamentarians who are elected along party lines. At the level of the Senate, which has 46 lawmakers, that is not the case. Seats are assigned on a cantonal basis.  

In 2019, the Swiss Abroad proved more open to change and in tune with contemporary issues than those back home.   

Why do Swiss abroad vote the way they do? 

The reasons have to do with the composition of each group. There are about 800,000 Swiss living abroad, so they are fewer in number. In addition, they must register to vote, which makes the group even more selective. There is also a logistical dimension. In the absence of e-voting, the delivery of paper voting material doesn’t always work.  

All these differences add up. At just 20%, the voting participation of the Swiss Abroad is much lower than the national average of 45%. In other words, elections pit the preferences of a relatively small group of Swiss Abroad against those of a much larger group of inland Swiss. The former group only becomes relevant when their choices are clearly different.   

The highly educated are over-represented in the Swiss Abroad population, according to multiple surveys. This shapes their views on Switzerland and political preferences. Living abroad expands people’s wealth of experiences. Global trends become more important, family traditions fade. It is no longer regional roots that influence choices but being open to future demands. 

How is this expressed in elections? 

The differences in referendum results reflect that tendency. A detailed study on this subject, conducted in 2017 by the Centre for Democracy in Aarau (ZDA), concluded that the Swiss Abroad usually follow the government’s recommendations when participating in a referendum. In addition, it is generally assumed that dissenting “no” propaganda, especially from the right, is less pronounced abroad than at home. 

Extreme divergences in voting behaviours do occur. This was the case in 2013 with the Christian Democratic Party family initiative, and again one year later with the People’s Party initiative against “mass immigration”. The Swiss Abroad were more than 25 percentage points more likely to vote in favour of the family initiative – which envisioned tax-exempt “child and training allowances” – than the average domestic voter. They also rejected the People’s Party initiative by around 17 percentage points more than the national average.   

Perfect comparisons are impossible in the absence of complete figures. Voting results specific to the Swiss Abroad are only available in 12 cantons. Nevertheless, these cover around 70% of the target group, which makes the extrapolation of missing data a reasonable proposition. 

When measuring political attitudes beyond a single issue, it is more appropriate to cite the divide between progressives and conservatives rather than the economic left-right dichotomy. This is because the Swiss Abroad are usually closer to the progressive pole, while those at home are closer to the conservative pole of the political spectrum. The conservatism that is so typical of Switzerland used to be observable among the Swiss Abroad, primarily due to the large number of pensioners residing outside Switzerland. But that has changed. Today, gainfully employed Swiss make up the majority of those living in foreign lands.  

Whether an issue has a direct impact on the voter or not can sometimes matter as much as differences in world view. For example, the Swiss Abroad were less averse to radio and television fees, which they generally do not pay. Likewise, in the case of social and health policy proposals too, the interests of the Swiss Abroad and those living in Switzerland rarely align.  

Can Swiss voters abroad tip the scales? 

This raises the question of whether the Swiss Abroad can overturn the majority? The answer is yes, albeit rarely. 

A prerequisite of this would be a result just above or below 50%. In addition, a proposal must primarily polarise progressives and conservatives; or raise an issue that is of special interest (or little interest) to the Swiss Abroad. 

This was the case with the initiative on the country’s broadcasting fees (2015). An amendment to the system was approved by a razor-thin margin of 50.1%. Swiss voters abroad were more in favour of the parliamentary reform proposal, which helped it pass. 

The same was probably true in 2022 with the reform of the old-age pension system. It was narrowly accepted with 50.7% of the vote. Here, too, the Swiss Abroad showed greater loyalty to the government, which may have been the decisive factor. 

The opposite was true of the People’s Party 2003 asylum initiative. It received a total of 49.9% of the vote, with a clear rejection among the Swiss Abroad. The national-conservative tenor of the initiative did not appeal at all outside Switzerland. 

One important caveat should be noted. When the margins are so narrow, the views of other groups that could have been decisive also warrant consideration. After all, the Swiss Abroad are not always “to blame” for everything.

Translated from German by Sue Brönnimann

Series Swiss Abroad views

• Episode 1: 1. Swiss Abroad views: what voting records show
• Episode 2: 2. How the Swiss Green Party became a force to be reckoned with
• Episode 3: 3. Why women made historic gains in the 2019 Swiss elections
• Episode 4: 4. Who are the Swiss Abroad?
• Episode 5: 5. Swiss Abroad views: the fight to exercise political rights
• Episode 6: 6. Swiss Abroad views: casting votes from afar
• Episode 7: 7. A 27th canton? How the voices of Swiss Abroad can be heard
• Episode 8: 8. How do you get the Swiss Abroad to the polls when there are none nearby?
• Episode 9: 9. ‘Vote where you live’: what this would mean for the Swiss Abroad