Turkey could face ‘rude awakening’, say Swiss papers

Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan react following news of his victory in the second round of the presidential elections, Istanbul, Turkey, May 28, 2023. Keystone / Erdem Sahin

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has fought off a challenge to secure five more years to oversee the country. But his new term of office will not be easy, say Swiss media.

Erdogan prevailed by winning more than 52% of the vote in Sunday’s presidential runoff, which came two weeks after he fell short of scoring an outright victory in the first round. A majority of Turkish voters in the second round chose him over challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

In a commentaryExternal link on Monday, Swiss public television, SRF, described the result as “a victory, but not a triumph”.

“His challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu didn’t stand a chance. His race to catch up fizzled out. The bold plan after the first ballot to capture votes across the spectrum proved impossible. In the end, the electorate was too contradictory and too heterogeneous,” said SRF correspondent Philipp Zahn in his analysis.

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The Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) said Erdogan’s victory was certainly “bitter for his opponents, but his supporters may also regret it”.

“Despite record inflation and the threat of a collapse of the currency, a majority supports the president. Even with a sharp, nationalist election campaign, the opposition cannot convince the voters. Dark times threaten Turkey,” NZZ said in a commentaryExternal link.

+ All aboard for Turkey’s elections

Europe should remain ‘firm’

Blick.chExternal link said Erdogan’s victory confirmed the control of Erdogan and his conservative and religious Justice and Development Party (AKP) over the country. But it was also “certain to increase the distance between Turkey and its European neighbours in the years to come”.

Erdogan now has the best card in hand to face his European neighbours, Richard Werly wrote in a commentary.

“Now that the electoral campaign is behind him, and with the absolute majority in parliament… Erdogan, 69, will have even greater leeway to affirm what he considers to be the indispensable power of Turkey against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine,” he wrote.

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But Blick added that his victory was not an “electoral tidal wave”, and Europe should remain “firm” in future negotiations with Ankara.

“Nearly half of Turkish society rejects its methods, denounces massive corruption and rebels against the AKP’s grip on the administration. Ankara’s European partners, starting with Germany, therefore have no reason to make disproportionate concessions to the re-elected president.”

Cost-of-living crisis and fighting inflation

The election had been seen as Erdogan’s biggest political challenge, with the opposition confident of unseating him and reversing his policies after polls showed a cost-of-living crisis left him vulnerable.

But in the end, they “let themselves be carried away by Erdogan’s nationalist rhetoric”, said NZZ.

“They were dazzled by all the drones, tanks and fighter jets that he presented during the election campaign as if it were an arms fair. They were under the illusion that this would make them strong and successful. In the process, their savings are dwindling, their wages are barely enough to pay the rent, and every trip to the supermarket is painful, since a week’s shopping now costs as much as a month’s rent used to,” wrote Ulrich von Schwerin for NZZ.

There could soon be “a rude awakening” in Turkey, he said.

“The country is threatened with a financial and currency crisis like the one in 2001, when the banks collapsed, and the lira was completely devalued. For some time now, the government has only been able to keep its head above water thanks to billions from friendly Gulf states and Russia,” he went on. “In the months leading up to the election, it burned the last of the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves to keep the lira stable. Last week, the net reserves slipped into the red for the first time since 2001.”

Independent economists have been sounding the alarm for some time, said NZZ. 

“If he does not finally abandon his misguided interest rate policy, a further devaluation of the lira seems inevitable. Then inflation threatens to rise again. For all the social aid, scholarships and free gas that Erdogan promised during the election campaign, there could soon be no more money,” it wrote.

SRF echoed this line, asking whether Erdogan can become a “reform president” and end spiralling inflation during his difficult next term of office.

“The Turkish lira is only a fraction of its value. Hyperinflation has been eating away at national wealth and the money in the pockets of his compatriots for years,” said SRF.

“The president knows exactly what neighbouring Greece had to go through more than ten years ago to save itself from bankruptcy… does the powerful and self-confident president have the courage and strength to impose a similar drastic cure on his compatriots?”