Stock Futures Point to Rebound While Bitcoin Sinks: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — S&P 500 futures edged higher as traders looked forward to a print of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure for clues on the outlook for interest rates.

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Contracts for the equity benchmark climbed 0.2%, signaling a modest rebound after the index erased the last of its 2025 gains on Thursday. A plunge in Bitcoin deepened as investors avoided riskier assets following President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. Worries about a trade war spread to oil, which slumped and headed for the biggest monthly loss since September.

Attention turns later to the core personal consumption expenditures price index — which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs. The index probably rose 2.6% in the year through January, after an increase of 2.8% in December, according to Bloomberg economists. It likely ticked up to 0.27% monthly compared with 0.16% in December.

A hotter-than-expected reading would prompt concern among investors, said Kevin Thozet, a portfolio advisor at Carmignac. “It would be another hint that there hasn’t been much progress on US inflation since June 2024,” he said. 

The inflation reading is in sharper focus after Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be enforced from March 4, while Chinese imports would face a further 10% levy. Economists say tariffs may hurt US growth, worsen inflation and possibly spark recessions in Mexico and Canada. 

Bitcoin extended the decline from its January peak to over 25%, in a striking pullback for one of the most popular Trump trades. The dollar edged higher, while Treasuries steadied after US 10-year yields dropped to levels not seen since December earlier. 

“This is not an environment for de-risking,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, on Bloomberg Television. “Perhaps it is just the case of finding hedges to protect the downside, because that 4th of March deadline is looming.”

On the outlook for stocks, Bank of America Corp. strategists said a reversal of the post-election rally would spark investor expectations for intervention by the US president to support the market.

The S&P 500 has slipped almost 3% this month, in part on worries that Trump’s proposed tariffs would fuel a global trade war. It’s now just about 1% from its closing level of 5,783 points on Nov. 5, the day of the Presidential election. About half of S&P 500 members are now down since election day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

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The Nov. 5 closing level is the “first strike price of a Trump put, below which investors currently long risk would very much expect and need some verbal support for markets from policymakers,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote in a note.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index fell 0.4% following the latest Trump tariff headlines, with mining and technology shares faring worst. The benchmark was off its Friday lows after French and Italian inflation data boosted the case for European Central Bank interest-rate cuts. 

Key events this week:

• US PCE inflation, income and spending, Friday
• Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 7:31 a.m. New York time
• Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
• The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4%
• The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
• The euro was little changed at $1.0405
• The British pound was little changed at $1.2596
• The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.41 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 4.8% to $80,197.38
• Ether fell 7% to $2,120.4

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.26%
• Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.40%
• Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.48%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $69.31 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,861.69 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Chiranjivi Chakraborty, Michael Msika and Sagarika Jaisinghani.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.