Stock Investors Wary About China’s Stimulus Bid: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Chinese shares fluctuated in a volatile session after a Finance Ministry briefing at the weekend underwhelmed investors and a drop in factory prices reinforced concerns about the economy.

Onshore equities swung between gains and losses while Hong Kong shares dropped along with US stock futures. China’s yuan weakened against the greenback, as did the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Oil declined after China’s briefing lacked new incentives to boost consumption in the biggest importer.

While China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an vowed more support for the real estate sector at the keenly anticipated weekend briefing, he did not produce a headline monetary stimulus figure, disappointing some investors. The focus is now turning to the next major policy briefing in the coming weeks — from the Communist Party-controlled parliament that oversees the budget — for details of more support. 

“Investors definitely have to be a lot more patient when it comes to the size of the fiscal stimulus package,” said Carlos Casanova, senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privee SA. “I think we will get some numbers possibly before the end of the month,” but officials in Beijing probably aren’t adopting a whatever-it-takes stance to rescue the economy. 

 Cash Treasuries are closed in Asia due to a holiday in Japan. 

Before the weekend briefing, money managers had been waiting for more fiscal measures to help sustain the rally sparked by the stimulus blitz that authorities unleashed in late September. Investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected China to deploy as much as 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus on Saturday, including potential subsidies, consumption vouchers and financial support for families with children.

The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore equities, capped its biggest weekly loss since late July on Friday, while the Aussie and kiwi – proxies for China sentiment among developed market currencies – fell for two weeks running. 

“Beijing has signaled more urgency and resolve to achieve this year’s annual targets via a slew of policy measures in recent weeks, though more is likely to still be on the way with a more concrete fiscal package to be unveiled,” Erin Xin, economist for Greater China at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note. “More fiscal support is likely on the way, with a package likely in the multi-trillion RMB realm, with the next key meetings to watch to be later this month.”

In the commodities space, Brent dropped below $78 a barrel while iron ore futures in Singapore reversed an early decline. The US dollar advanced after rising for a second week as traders pared expectations on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its monetary settings unchanged for a sixth consecutive review. This week, Chinese growth and retail sales data are due while inflation readings in New Zealand, Canada and the UK are expected. Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia central banks will give policy decisions ahead of the European Central Bank later this week. 

The ECB will probably advance the global push for monetary easing with an interest-rate cut that policymakers had all but ruled out just a month ago.

“Clearly, softer activity data and faster disinflation have had an immediate impact on both ECB communication and markets, which are now pricing a 95% probability of a 25-basis point cut this week,” Barclays Plc strategists including Themistoklis Fiotakis wrote in a note to clients. “We view risks to European macro and interest rates as skewed to the downside, which creates scope for further euro weakness, particularly on crosses.”

Key events this week: 

• China trade balance, Monday
• India CPI, Monday
• UK unemployment rate and average weekly earnings, Tuesday
• Eurozone industrial production, Tuesday
• Canada CPI, Tuesday
• Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup earnings, Tuesday
• Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will be interviewed by Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago, Tuesday
• New Zealand CPI, Wednesday
• Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia central bank interest-rate decisions, Wednesday
• UK CPI, PPI, RPI and house price index, Wednesday
• ASML, Morgan Stanley earnings, Wednesday
• Australia unemployment, Thursday
• Eurozone CPI, ECB rate decision, Thursday
• US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, business inventories, Thursday
• TSMC, Netflix earnings, Thursday
• Japan CPI, Friday
• China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, home prices, Friday
• UK retail sales, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 12:22 p.m. Tokyo time
• Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 0.3%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%
• The Shanghai Composite rose 1.2%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.1%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
• The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0926
• The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 149.31 per dollar
• The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0836 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $62,910
• Ether rose 0.2% to $2,465.46

Bonds

• Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.27%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2% to $74.68 a barrel
• Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Matthew Burgess.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.