Stocks Get Late Boost From Tech as Tariffs Loom: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest tech companies lifted stocks as investors brushed off weak economic readings to focus on prospects for interest-rate cuts ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout. 

In another volatile session, the S&P 500 wiped out a 1% slide that was triggered by weak manufacturing and jobs data. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps halted a four-day selloff. Treasury yields dropped as traders slightly boosted their bets on Federal Reserve policy easing. That’s despite a surge in a price measure. Canada’s loonie and Mexico’s peso gained on news the leaders of both countries held a “productive” call on trade.

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It’s a been a dizzying period for investors bracing for Trump’s tariffs. As the deadline approaches, it’s not clear how far he’ll go in overturning the current rules-based system of global commerce. The uncertainty has shaken markets, prompted economists to cut their growth forecasts and forced central bankers to factor in the potential inflationary impact of import costs.

Trump’s tariffs will take immediate effect after they are announced Wednesday, his top spokeswoman said. 

“Sentiment remains fragile before tariff day,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “With the exact scope of these measures still uncertain, you would imagine that investors remain cautious. The trajectory of stocks remains highly uncertain in the near-term outlook.”

The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 added 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average wavered. All seven megacaps gained, with Tesla Inc. up 3.6%. Conservative media outlet Newsmax Inc. surged more than 2,000% since its Monday debut. Johnson & Johnson tumbled after the company’s plan to settle thousands of talc-related lawsuits through bankruptcy was shot down in court.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.17%. The dollar was little changed.

Trump is set Wednesday to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs and other levies on what he has labeled “Liberation Day” — a move expected to cover a broader swath of trade than the 1930 Smoot-Hawley duties that have long served as a cautionary tale about protectionism. It’s part of Trump’s wider project to dismantle the global trading system the US helped build out of that era’s wreckage, on his belief that Americans got a raw deal.

“We doubt that ‘Liberation Day’ is going to mark the end around tariff uncertainty,” said HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner. “We’d argue the potential is in fact higher for the 2 April deadline to introduce even more uncertainty – and hence prolonged broad-based weakness in leading indicators.”

Three of Wall Street’s most-reliable bulls have acknowledged that they were too optimistic in their estimates for the S&P 500 this year — but they still believe stocks will rally over the remaining three quarters of 2025.

In other words, while these market pros are warning of a slowdown — pointing to the risks to economic growth and consumer sentiment from Trump’s policies — they are not preparing for a wider meltdown yet. In fact, every major strategist tracked by Bloomberg still anticipates a rise in the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year. 

Market participants are positioning for another solid stretch of performance for Treasuries after signs of cooling US growth drove a first-quarter rally that left benchmark 10-year yields down about a half-percentage point from their January peak. 

Trend-following hedge funds turned short US equities and long Treasuries last month and the rotation has room to run, according to analysis by Barclays Plc.

Rising potential for a US recession has Pacific Investment Management Co. touting the attractiveness of “stable sources of returns” in global bonds. 

The bond manager is warning that Trump’s aggressive trade, cost-cutting and immigration policies stand to slow the world’s biggest economy by more than previously expected, hurting the labor market and supporting its view for investors to tilt their portfolios toward safer assets. 

There’s “a strong case to diversify away from highly priced US equities into a broader mix of global, high quality bonds,” Pimco’s Tiffany Wilding and Andrew Balls wrote in a note. Markets “are in the early stages of a multiyear period in which fixed income can outperform equities while offering a more favorable risk-adjusted profile.”

Before the Bell: ISM in Focus, Chips Act, Carmakers Tariff Plea

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
• The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
• The MSCI World Index rose 0.5%
• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.6%
• The Russell 2000 Index was little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
• The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0790
• The British pound was little changed at $1.2920
• The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.61 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $84,952.79
• Ether rose 5% to $1,910.31

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.17%
• Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.69%
• Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.63%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $71.20 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,118.90 an ounce

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