Stocks Hit by Tech Rout as War Jitters Lift Oil: Markets Wrap

This content was published on October 7, 2024 - 22:20

7 minutes

(Bloomberg) — A selloff in some of the world’s largest technology companies dragged down stocks, extending a slide that was also driven by geopolitical angst and bets the Federal Reserve will opt for a smaller rate cut next month.

The S&P 500 fell 1% after notching a four-week winning run. Alphabet Inc. sank 2.4% as a judge ruled it must lift restrictions that prevent developers from setting up rival marketplaces that compete with its Google Play Store. Brent crude jumped above $80 a barrel amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. In the wake of Friday’s solid jobs data, Treasuries continued to drop — with the 10-year yield topping 4%.

“Friday’s strong jobs report not only appeared to kill any chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut in November, it kickstarted chatter about the Fed leaving rates unchanged if economic data continues to come in hotter than expected,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “But as last week showed, geopolitics can’t be ignored.”

To Dave Sekera at Morningstar, if there is any further geopolitical escalation, that would potentially spur the risk-off trade — with growth shares underperforming value ones.

“Typically, in a risk-off trade, you’re going to see rotation into defense stocks, but I’d be careful if you’re an investor today,” he said. “Some of the defensive sectors today are already overvalued. Unlike a typical risk-off trade, I think oil stocks would go up.”

With the exception of energy shares, every major sector in the S&P 500 dropped Monday. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps slipped 1.9%. Amazon.com Inc. sank 3.1% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the shares. Apple Inc. slid 2.3% as a Jefferies analyst said investors have overly optimistic expectations for the latest iPhones. Nvidia Corp. gained.

Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge – the VIX – jumped to a two-month high. Treasury 10-year yields rose six basis points to 4.02%. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 3.9% to $77.30 a barrel.

Despite the drop in stocks, two of Wall Street’s top strategists have turned more optimistic on signs of a robust labor market, economic resilience and easing interest rates.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson raised his view on so-called cyclical stocks relative to safer defensive peers, noting Friday’s blowout payrolls data and expectations of more cuts from the Fed. His peer at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., David Kostin, upgraded his 12-month target for the benchmark to 6,300 points from 6,000. The gauge closed at 5,695.94 Monday.

Despite recent market volatility, strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute are reiterating their overweight to US equities and urging to lean into risk, citing cooling inflation and falling interest rates.

“The increasing probability that US economic performance will continue to be ‘hot’ going into 2025 and that the Fed will tolerate this heat, provided inflation isn’t reaccelerating, bodes well for risk assets,” said Jason Draho at UBS Global Wealth Management.

But navigating such an environment is not without challenges, he noted.

“The week ahead is a pivotal one for markets, with key CPI data and the start of earnings season, and we expect these events to confirm our bullish stance on markets and justify our expectations for the S&P 500 to reach 6,150 by year-end,” said James Demmert at Main Street Research. “The strong jobs numbers from Friday are a reminder to investors that the economy is vibrant, and recession risk is not a factor.”

Aside from the macroeconomic picture, traders will be wading through corporate results this week.

The third-quarter earnings season is expected to be fertile ground for investors who take an active approach to managing money, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp.

Options market is pricing in biggest post-earnings implied move at the single stock level in BofA data history since 2021, while S&P 500 Index volatility remains low, team led by Ohsung Kwon said Monday in a note to clients.

“This upcoming earnings season is set to be a great environment for stock pickers,” he noted.

Financial sector earnings kick off Friday — with reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Blackrock Inc. Their net interest income outlook and capital markets revenue are in focus following September’s Fed rate cut, Bloomberg Intelligence said.

Delta Air Lines Inc., the first major US airline to report this quarter, should provide further insight into travel demand following reports from Airbnb Inc. and Booking Holdings Inc. that flagged a pullback in vacation spending.

Corporate Highlights:

Amazon.com Inc. must face an antitrust suit filed by the US Federal Trade Commission over its online marketplace, but a federal judge dismissed some of the agency’s claims tied to state consumer protection laws.
Activist investor Starboard Value has taken a stake of about $1 billion in Pfizer Inc. and is seeking to spur a turnaround of the struggling pharmaceuticals giant, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Chevron Corp. agreed to sell stakes in oil sands and shale assets in Western Canada to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. for $6.5 billion.
Air Products and Chemicals Inc. rallied after a round of positive analyst commentary on the chemical company, including upgrades. The news follows a report that activist investor Mantle Ridge took a stake.
Apollo Global Management Inc. agreed to buy Barnes Group Inc. in an all-cash transaction that values the technology and aerospace manufacturer at about $3.6 billion.
Rivus Pharmaceuticals Inc., a drug developer focused on obesity treatments, is considering a US initial public offering as soon as 2024, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
Continental AG has lined up banks to help with the separation of its struggling car parts business, according to people familiar with the matter, moving ahead with the plans despite recalls related to faulty braking systems it supplied.

Key events this week:

Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, Philip Jefferson and Adriana Kugler speak, Tuesday
Fed minutes, Wednesday
Fed’s Lorie Logan, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee and Mary Daly speak, Wednesday
US initial jobless claims, CPI, Thursday
Fed’s John Williams and Thomas Barkin speak, Thursday
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo kick off earnings season for the big Wall Street banks, Friday
US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed’s Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks