June 9 votes: Swiss healthcare initiatives are losing support

Swiss voters are becoming less convinced by moves to curb healthcare costs. Keystone / Gaetan Bally

The two initiatives to limit health insurance premiums and curb healthcare costs have lost ground during the campaign, according to the second poll by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) ahead of the federal vote on June 9.

Acceptance of the Electricity Law is becoming clearer, as is rejection of the anti-vaccination initiative.

The proposals from the Social Democratic Party and the Centre Party to combat rising healthcare costs are becoming less and less convincing to the electorate, according to the results of the second SBC poll, conducted in mid-May by gfs.bern.

The survey

For the second demographic survey ahead of the federal referendum on June 9, 2024, gfs.bern polled 12,279 eligible voters between May 13 and 22. The statistical margin of error is between /-2.8 percentage points.

With less than two weeks to go before the federal referendum on June 9, the Social Democrat’s initiative to limit health insurance premiums to 10% of income is attracting 50% support. The yes camp has thus lost six percentage points compared with the first poll on May 3.

Conversely, the opponents of the text have gained eight percentage points: 48% of those questioned are now opposed, while 2% are still undecided.

The Swiss Abroad are still more in favour of the initiative than their compatriots at home, with 53% of Swiss Abroad still supporting it. At the same time, the no vote is more pronounced among the diaspora: in the space of a month, those opposed to the initiative have risen by 13 percentage points to 42%.

The significant increase in the no vote among the Swiss Abroad is difficult to explain. “The Swiss Abroad are in principle not insured in Switzerland and would therefore not benefit from a cap on health premiums,” points out gfs.bern political scientist Martina Mousson.

Left-right and linguistic divide

A classic conflict between left and right is emerging around this initiative. It is particularly appealing to members of the left-wing Green Party and Social Democratic Party, while those close to the right and centre parties are vehemently opposed.

Unsurprisingly, the majority of people on low and middle incomes are in favour. Conversely, opposition is particularly strong among people earning more than CHF11,000 ($12,100) a month.

There is a clear divide between German-speaking and French-speaking Switzerland on this issue. The French-speaking (66%) and Italian-speaking (69%) parts of the country broadly support the text, while only 43% of German-speaking Swiss are convinced by it.

Despite the increase in the number of people opposed to the initiative, the arguments put forward by its supporters continue to be convincing. In particular, 87% of those polled believe that there is an urgent need for action in view of the relentless rise in healthcare costs.

However, voters are sceptical about how the measures will be financed: 58% fear higher taxes and additional burdens for families.

>> Take part in our debate about the costs of healthcare:

Rising premiums enter the debate

As support for popular initiatives tends to dwindle over the course of the campaign, the Social Democrats’ initiative will find it hard to pass the test of the ballot box. The political scientists at gfs.bern also consider that it could fail in the majority of cantons.

However, Martina Mousson warns that “the debate that began last week on premium increases for 2025 could change the situation”. After the poll was completed, the comparison website Comparis announced that it expected premiums to rise by an average of 6% by 2025.

Towards a no vote on the initiative to curb costs

The Centre Party’s recipe for helping policyholders is even less convincing than that of the Social Democrats. The text, which aims to oblige the government to take measures as soon as healthcare spending increases by 20% more than salaries, no longer appeals to a majority of voters. The initiative looks set to fail.

According to the survey, 54% of those questioned by gfs.bern now intend to reject the initiative, while only 41% are still in favour and 5% are undecided. In the space of a month, the proportions have reversed: the yes side has lost 11 percentage points and the no side has gained 13.

The Swiss Abroad continue to support this proposal, with 50% in favour. But as with the premium reduction initiative, opposition to the cost brake rose sharply among the diaspora to 48%.

Centre Party all alone

The Centre Party did not manage to convince anyone outside its own ranks. The other political groupings on both the left and the right rejected its proposal. What’s more, almost all the population groups studied by the political scientists are opposed to the text. The lowest income earners, who earn up to CHF3,000 a month, still support it by 49%.

The linguistic divide is less clear-cut than for the Social Democrats’ initiative, although there are differences between the language regions. The project still has 49% support in French-speaking Switzerland and 55% in Italian-speaking Switzerland, while only 38% of German-speakers are in favour.

In the course of the campaign, the initiative’s perceived weaknesses became more apparent. The arguments put forward by those opposed to the initiative were more appealing than those in favour. In particular, 72% of those polled thought it was wrong to link healthcare to economic developments. 

However, there is still a majority in favour of the central idea of cost containment: 54% support the argument that the mechanism would be effective because it brings all the players in the healthcare system to the table.

Electricity Law wins over voters

On the other hand, the electorate is widely expected to approve the Electricity Law on June 9, according to the opinion poll. Almost three-quarters (73%) of those polled intend to approve this far-reaching reform, which aims to boost the development of renewable energies in the country and secure the electricity supply; 24% are opposed and 3% are undecided.

The diaspora supports the project in the same proportions, with 71% in favour, 25% against and 4% undecided.

There is a broad social consensus in favour of reform. Only people close to the right-wing Swiss People’s Party are opposed. All other sections of the population are in favour, as the survey shows.

The arguments have lost none of their effectiveness over the course of the campaign. In particular, the overwhelming majority of those polled believe that the Electricity Law encourages the production of electricity locally, thereby reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.

Slap in the face for vaccination initiative

The Swiss people are set to reject yet another initiative by groups opposed to the measures taken against Covid-19 during the pandemic. Opposition to the “Stop compulsory vaccination” initiative has grown even stronger since the first poll.

Some 75% of those questioned now say they are against the initiative, 22% are in favour and 3% have not yet made up their minds. The rejection of the text is also significant among the Swiss Abroad.

The initiative does not convince any of the population groups surveyed by gfs.ben. Even People’s Party voters no longer support it, even though the party recommends accepting it.

Edited by Samuel Jaberg. Translated from French by DeepL/ts