Swiss votes on September 22: biodiversity and pension ballots still wide open

No more lounging around: political life in Bern is getting back to normal this week. Keystone / Alessandro Della Valle

As campaigning kicks off ahead of next month’s national votes in Switzerland, the biodiversity initiative and a reform of occupational pensions both enjoy a slight lead – but all could yet change, a survey says.

Summer holidays are over, Swiss political life is waking up – and vote campaigns ahead of the September 22 ballots are picking up pace. While the biodiversity initiative is likely to divide voters along classic lines, the other issue at stake – a complex pension reform – is set for some heated debates.

What’s clear: if the public had voted at the beginning of August, both the ecological initiative and the pension reform would have been set for victory. This is the major finding of the first of two vote polls ahead of the September ballot, carried out by the gfs.bern research institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC), SWI swissinfo.ch’s parent company.

However, the hot phase of campaigning is only starting now – which means the two outcomes are far from certain.

Polling details

For the first survey in the run-up to the federal votes on September 22, 2024, the gfs.bern institute polled 12,332 voters between July 29 and August 12. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.

Biodiversity initiative: a shaky yes

At the beginning of August the biodiversity initiative would have been accepted with 51% fully or rather in favour, 43% against, and 6% undecided. At the same time, however, just under three-quarters of respondents said they expected the initiative to be rejected. Indeed, popular initiatives tend to lose support as campaigning goes on: initial arguments fade into the background, while possible negative consequences of the proposal begin to be raised.

This dynamic is likely to have already cost the initiative some support during the summer months, as opponents kicked off their campaigning. In the end, the decisive factor will be which perspective manages to gain the upper hand: is biodiversity an underestimated problem, or would the initiative lead to large swathes of land being removed from consideration for any other use?

Divisions along classic lines

Meanwhile the divisions between voters are following typical patterns, gfs.bern writes: support for the initiative comes mainly from the left, urban areas, French-speaking Switzerland and women. Opponents are mainly men and people in rural areas.

Politically, the strongest backing comes from voters of the Social Democratic Party and the Greens; a clear majority of Liberal Greens are also in favour. Most supporters of the Centre Party are against the initiative, while those from the centre-right Radical-Liberals and right-wing Swiss People’s Party are even more clearly opposed.

In French-speaking regions of Switzerland, the survey shows, 57% back the proposal, but many are still lukewarm or undecided about it. A slim majority of 51% in the Italian-speaking part of the country supports the initiative, while in the dominant German-speaking regions the majority is only relative (49%).

Swiss Abroad voters are more clearly in favour of the issue, with 60% definitely or probably saying yes and just 15% definitely saying no.

Pension reform: outcome up in the air

The other ballot up for vote – an occupational pensions reform – is also tight: a relative majority of 49% are in favour, while 39% are against.

A strikingly high percentage – 12% – is still undecided. The reform is considered a complicated one, and pollsters say that not many respondents have finalised their view on it.

Campaigning on the reform is likely to be hefty: recently, a high number of social policy proposals have been put to the ballot, and battles around wealth distribution are becoming heated due to the federal government’s limited financial reserves.

Yet virtually all agree that some action needs to be taken: 87% of survey respondents are fully or somewhat in favour of improving the pension situation of part-time workers – especially women. Some 54% are in favour of reducing contributions for older workers, while 49% agree that the conversion rate for occupational pensions should not be too high.

However, the counter-argument that the reform will cheat employees is also popular: 51% of respondents reckon it will mean higher pension contributions and lower pension payments. Even more (65%) fully or somewhat agree with the argument that, in view of inflation and high interest rates, a reduction in occupational pensions is not viable for many.

Voting intentions

Voters from Liberal Green, Centre Party, and Radical-Liberal circles are clearly in favour of the reform. Those who don’t associate with any party, as well as People’s Party and Green supporters, also lean towards accepting it. Opposition mainly comes from supporters of the left-wing Social Democrats – although their rejection is “surprisingly close”, gfs.bern writes.

The connection between party elites and grassroots voters is interesting: while centrist parties appear to be in agreement on this, the official line of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the People’s Party is only being partially listened to by their voters.

Meanwhile the voting intentions of the Swiss Abroad are practically the same as those of their compatriots in the homeland.

Finally, the recent kerfuffle around pension forecasts could yet play a role in the campaign: recently, the Federal Social Insurance Office admitted it had made a considerable miscalculation in its estimation regarding the future financial health of the old-age and survivors’ insurance (OASI) system – the situation actually looks better than previously thought, officials said.

However, as a result, there have been calls – particularly from the left – for the 2022 vote on raising the retirement age for women to be re-held; the miscalculated forecasts unduly influenced the narrow result of 50.5% in favour of that reform, they claim.

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Translated from German by Domhnall O’Sullivan/DeepL