Voters could scupper Swiss motorway extension plans

Do more roads mean fewer traffic jams, or just more traffic? Keystone / Anthony Anex

Less than two weeks ahead of a federal referendum on November 24, a majority of Swiss voters – including those living abroad – are against a proposed expansion of the motorway network, according to a poll by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC).

Supporters of the motorway expansion plans are losing ground. A month ago, they still enjoyed a slim majority. Now, a second poll by the gfs.bern research institute on behalf of the SBC, swissinfo.ch’s parent company, shows a reversal. A small majority (51%) is against the project, while 47% of voters back it. Just 2% are undecided.

Support among Swiss citizens abroad has also plummeted. In the first poll, the diaspora was surprisingly favourable towards the authorities’ plan to relieve motorway traffic congestion – they backed it considerably more than the Swiss population as a whole. Now, the Swiss Abroad are divided: half support it, half oppose it.

This trend is more in line with the usual behaviour of the Swiss Abroad, who tend to vote more ecologically than the overall population.

“They may have had more time [since the previous poll] to inform themselves about the issue,” says gfs.bern political scientist Martina Mousson.

Voters have meanwhile made up their minds on the motorway expansion more than for the other three issues on the November 24 ballot (see below). The gfs.bern researchers also say the motorway issue is strongly polarised across party lines: supporters of the left-wing Social Democrats and Greens, as well as the centrist Liberal Greens, are opposed; backers of right-wing parties are in favour, as are people who distrust government.

“It’s also interesting to see that the difference in voting intentions between men and women has widened over the campaign,” Mousson says. While a large majority of women intend to vote no, a majority of men are leaning towards a yes.

Overall, the researchers note a clear shift in opinion towards the no side, but they still feel that the final outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. “It will very much depend on how well supporters are mobilised in the closing stages of campaigning,” says Mousson.

Polling details

The second nationwide survey in the run-up to federal votes on November 24, 2024, saw 10,358 voters polled by the gfs.bern institute between October 28 and November 7. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points.

Majority support for standardised healthcare financing model

Backers of a new standardised financing model for healthcare services (EFAS) have also lost ground (down seven percentage points). However, the latest poll suggests that the parliament- and government-backed plan still enjoys majority support of 54%, with 37% opposed. A significant proportion of those surveyed (9%) said they were still undecided, probably due to the complexity of the proposal.

On healthcare financing, the left-right divide has also widened: Social Democrats are now more clearly in the no camp than they were at the time of the first opinion poll, while those close to right-wing parties are in favour of the reform.

“The yes side has a slight advantage,” says Lukas Golder of gfs.bern. However, he remains cautious about the final vote result, pointing out that the trade unions’ arguments against the project seem to have gained a strong hold upon certain sections of the population. “If the opponents want to win, they will have to convince the undecided,” Golder says.

Uncertainty about tougher rules for subletting

Backing for two amendments to Swiss tenancy law, also up for vote on November 24, has likewise plummeted over the course of the campaign.

Since the first poll a month ago, the no camp has gained nine percentage points while the yes camp lost 14. This shows a clear trend towards rejection at the ballot box, according to the political scientists at gfs.bern. That said, a relative majority of the electorate (50%) is still in favour of toughening the conditions for subletting, while 47% are opposed and 3% have not yet made up their minds. The trend is similar among Swiss Abroad voters.

Opponents of the reform see it as undermining protections for tenants; they also argue that existing rules are sufficient. Those in favour have managed to convince some voters by pointing to problems raised by subletting on online platforms.

Despite the progress made by the no side, gfs.bern believes that the outcome of the vote remains uncertain and will depend on how well voters are mobilised to vote.

Easier evictions: heading for a no result

The picture is clearer when it comes to the other reform to tenancy law: a proposal to make it easier for a landlord to terminate a tenancy if they want to use the property for their own purposes.

Some 53% of those polled said they plan to reject this reform, while 44% are in favour and 3% undecided. As in the case of the first text, opposition to the amendment has clearly increased, both among Swiss living abroad and those at home.

Here too, the plan is widely seen as an attack on renter protections, according to gfs.bern – something which doesn’t go down well in a country where some 60% of the population are tenants. The polling institute thus expects a rejection at the ballot box.

The bigger picture: sinking confidence in authorities

As campaigning has progressed, the proportion of “no” votes has risen for all four issues on the November 24 ballot. This trend does not correspond to the normal pattern of opinion-formation in Switzerland when it comes to projects initiated by authorities.

In Golder’s view, this is a sign of the electorate’s loss of trust in the government and parliament, with confidence now lower than at any time since 2018.

Distrust of authorities can be explained by various factors, while a string of defeats in this year’s federal referendums also hasn’t helped, Golder reckons.

Mousson also notes that government ministers have been rather quiet in defending the issues. Economics Minister Guy Parmelin, for example, paid just lip service to the tenancy law reforms, while repeating that the government saw no reason to change it in the first place.

Mousson also says the mistrust is fuelled by a general impression that “many problems have not been resolved, particularly the war in Ukraine”.

Edited by Samuel Jaberg; adapted from French by DeepL/dos