Stocks Eke Out Gain as Tech Drives Late-Day Bounce: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — A rally in most big techs drove stocks higher on Tuesday, though gains moderated after one of the market’s best days in 2025 as traders assessed economic risks amid the threat of a trade war.

After fluctuating throughout most of the session, the S&P 500 rose by 0.2%. Tesla Inc. extended a five-day surge to 28% while Nvidia Corp. fell. A slide in consumer confidence to a four-year low weighed on sentiment. That’s even as traders added to wagers on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Bond yields slipped. The dollar halted a recent advance. Oil slid as US said Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea.

 

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Market forecasters have been split on whether the rebound in equities has further to go. Strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc led by Max Kettner downgraded US stocks to underweight, citing economic concerns. Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou said it’s time to pause the rally-fading approach as emerging clarity on tariffs alleviates some key risks.

“Confidence is a fragile thing,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers. “Despite the ever-increasing roles of algorithms and artificial intelligence in the investment process, emotions still play an important role in market behavior. Fear and greed still rule, and their constant tug-of-war has been on full display in both the market and the economy recently.”

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed. A gauge of tech megacaps climbed 1.2%.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid two basis points to 4.31%. The dollar dropped 0.1%. US copper surged to a record.

To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, the bounce from a selloff has been a good one, but investors still need to be sure that the worst is really behind us.

“Markets in the near term are going to be choppy,” said Charles Ashley at Catalyst Funds. “There’s a little bit of paralysis with market participants not knowing what to do because they don’t know what policy is going to go into place. We’re not at the point yet where there’s extreme pricing dislocations to find really good opportunities.”

Consumer sentiment surveys have been dismal of late as households fear a resurgence in inflation from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Companies have warned of higher prices and less demand, coinciding with economists’ forecasts that suggest a risk of stagflation and rising odds of recession.

“Sentiment continues to wane among investors, consumers and businesses as economic concerns and economic policy uncertainty takes its toll,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Until there’s more certainty on the tariff and macro front, sentiment and confidence remain vulnerable.”

“Over the last several weeks we’ve seen evidence that whatever froth there was in terms of market sentiment, bullish sentiment has been wrung out,” according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists. 

They said the latest example came in Tuesday’s consumer confidence report, with the percentage of those expecting lower stock prices in the year ahead surging by more than 10 percentage points.

“Following these prior surges in negative sentiment, though, the equity market tended to start recovering, and pretty quickly in most cases,” Bespoke said.

For much of last year, market forecasters bumped up their outlooks for US equities in tandem, chasing a rally that propelled the S&P 500 from one record high to another. But a quick 10% drop from the index’s February high caught them offsides, triggering a debate over which way stocks will go next.

“Sentiment remains cagey,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “There are fears that the rebound may have run a bit too high. Clearly, some investors remain unconvinced that the worst is over.”

The benchmark had bounced back in recent days as the White House signaled plans to take a more targeted approach to the tariffs coming next week. However, the ultimate outcome remains highly unpredictable since levies from the US are likely to trigger reciprocal responses from the countries they’re aimed at, making the economic consequences almost impossible to predict.

“The issue at this point is the risk/reward is much less favorable than when the S&P 500 was around 5,500-5,600,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “So in order to be aggressive buyers here, you have to believe the S&P 500 is going back above 6,000. While we are open to that possibility, it’s not our base case.”

The gauge closed at 5,776.65 on Tuesday.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
• The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
• The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
• The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.7%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
• The euro was little changed at $1.0795
• The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2947
• The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 149.86 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $88,231.4
• Ether fell 0.4% to $2,077.41

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.31%
• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.80%
• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.75%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% at $69 a barrel
• Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,019.56 an ounce

–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Aya Wagatsuma and Lynn Thomasson.

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