Stocks Rise Before Fed With Earnings in Full Swing: Markets Wrap

This content was published on July 30, 2024 - 18:35

7 minutes

(Bloomberg) — A selloff in the world’s largest companies sent stocks down, with traders bracing for earnings from tech giants and central bank decisions that will be key in shaping the trajectory of markets.

Most shares in the S&P 500 rose, but renewed tech weakness weighed on the gauge — with Nvidia Corp. tumbling 6.5%. After a $2.3-trillion Nasdaq 100 wipeout, investors awaited Microsoft Corp.’s results amid concern that firms aren’t yet seeing returns from artificial intelligence. Its numbers will set the scene for reports from other heavyweighs this week, with markets also gearing up for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.

“If the Fed does not signal a September rate cut, markets could get a bit ugly given recent tech weakness — especially if earnings underwhelm,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

While the Fed is expected to hold benchmark rates at the highest level in more than two decades, traders will be closely watching for any hints that the start of policy easing is near. In the run-up to the decision, data showed US consumer confidence rose on an improved outlook for the economy and job openings beat forecasts.

The S&P 500 fell almost 1%. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4%. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps sank 2.3%. The Russell 2000 of small firms wavered. Microsoft Corp. is investigating outages of some Office applications and cloud services. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. plunged on a report Delta Air Lines Inc. hired an attorney after a tech outage. Procter & Gamble Co. sank on a sales miss. JetBlue Airways Corp. soared on a turnaround plan.

Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 4.17%.

The yen rose. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be under intense scrutiny Wednesday when he unveils his plans for quantitative tightening and delivers a decision on the policy interest rate. Recent yen weakness has done more harm than good for the Japanese economy, according to Japan’s newly appointed top foreign exchange official.

*BOJ BOARD MEMBERS TO DISCUSS RAISING RATES TO 0.25%: NHK

The continuing broadening of this year’s powerful stock market rally hangs on what the Fed does and says about interest rates after its two-day meeting wraps up on Wednesday. Since the latest consumer price index print showed signs of cooling inflation, traders have stepped up their rotation out of Big Technology shares and into everything from small-capitalization stocks to value plays.

If the Fed is about to begin a rate reduction cycle, stock bulls have history on their side. In the six prior hiking cycles, the S&P 500 Index has risen an average 5% a year after the first cut, according to calculations by the financial research firm CFRA. What’s more, the gains also broadened, with the small-cap Russell 2000 Index climbing 3.2% 12 months later, CFRA’s data show.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said one or two Fed rate cuts later this year are looking increasingly likely, after predicting just two months ago there would be no rate reductions in 2024.

“One or two cuts in the fall seems more likely,” Solomon said Tuesday in a CNBC interview from Paris. “There’s no question there are some shifts in consumer behavior, and the cumulative impact of what’s been kind of a long inflationary pressure, even though it’s moderating, is having an effect on consumer habits.”

The S&P 500 Index has probably already logged the gains it will see this year, but the benchmark still presents ample opportunities for investors, according to Bank of America Corp.

While neutral on the index overall, BofA’s Savita Subramanian says there’s potential for strong returns in a few areas: among dividend payers, “old school” capital-expenditure beneficiaries like infrastructure, construction and manufacturing stocks, and other themes that don’t revolve around artificial intelligence.

“In mid-2023, sentiment was deeply negative and our toolkit suggested that the direction of economic and earnings surprises was more likely positive than negative,” Subramanian, the firm’s head of US equity and quantitative strategy, told clients in a note dated July 29. “Today, sentiment is neutral and positive surprises are ebbing.”

Corporate Highlights:

Pfizer Inc. raised its profit expectations for the year, citing new cancer drugs, as it seeks to dig out of a Covid-related hole in sales.
Merck & Co. got hit as light sales of its Gardasil HPV vaccine in China dimmed quarterly profit and sales that beat Wall Street estimates.
SoFi Technologies Inc. raised its forecast for this year’s profit and revenue as the fintech benefits from both its newer technology businesses and its trademark lending operation.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s quarterly profit shrank more than expected as the grain trading giant faces a downturn in crop markets.
Airbus SE’s operating profit fell by more than half in the second quarter after the company booked a charge at its space unit, forcing it to cut costs amid lower-than-anticipated aircraft deliveries.
L’Oréal SA reported sluggish sales growth for the second quarter as the world’s biggest maker of beauty products suffered from weakness in China.
BP Plc maintained the pace of share buybacks and increased its dividend as strong second-quarter earnings from pumping crude offset weakness in other parts of the business.
Grifols SA, the Spanish pharmaceutical company hit by a short seller attack this year, said it overstated the value of its stake in a Chinese firm and reported an accounting adjustment of €457 million ($494 million).

Key events this week: